Thursday, December 22, 2011

Bill Gross & Jim Rogers: Bleak Outlook For Real Estate; Interest Rates To Stay ... - ETF Daily News

Jonathan Yates: Bill Gross recently confirmed a bleak outlook for real estate as he predicted that low interest rates would be maintained by the Federal Reserve for “three, four or five years.”  He also stated that the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will continue to keep interest rates low, too.

This is obviously being done in further attempts to revitalize the real estate market.  Neither the housing sector nor commercial real estate has recovered from the 2008 credit market crash.

There are still 4 million foreclosures waiting to hit the market in the United States.  As bad as things seemed, it turns out the National Association of Realtors has been too optimistic in its figures.  As a result, new numbers will be issued on December 21.

It is not just the United States. Gafisa SA (NYSE:GFA) a Brazilian homebuilder, is off about 60% for the year.  Xinyuan Real Estate Co (NYSE:XIN) a Chinese homebuilder, is down almost 30% year to date.

Back here in the United States, the ETF for home builders, SPDR S&P Homebuilders (NYSEARCA:XHB) is down for 2011, too.

If Jim Rogers is right and a new financial crisis hits that is worse than 2008, the real estate sector will suffer even more, no matter how low interest rates stay.

View the original article here

Debunking 3 Gloom & Doom Concerns And Banking On Consumer Cyclicals [Podcast]

How much of the farm should ETF investors "bet" on farming?

Throughout 2011, Jim Rogers has been particularly bullish on agricultural-based assets. Yet Market Vectors Agribusiness (MOO) and PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA) are both down -11% over the prior year.

Is Mr. Rogers changing his tune? Not a chance. Although the world-renowned China bull is somewhat bearish on stock assets, he still sees the world’s demand for food rising. That should help agricultural commodities represented by PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA)... and it should benefit the corporations in Market Vectors Agribusiness (MOO) that supply the global agribusiness industry.

Of course, there’s a more popular form of harvesting taking place in 2011… tax-loss harvesting. Specifically, savvy investors are taking some losses on short-term investments in December, rather than holding-n-hoping. For instance, an agribusiness believer can sell Potash (POT) today at a loss, replace it with Market Vectors Agribusiness (MOO), and simultaneously lower his/her tax bill.

Obviously, European debt uncertainty is punishing stocks all across the big board. The debt crisis has pushed traders out of commodities as well. Is there any hope for "risk assets" as the holiday season comes to an unceremonious conclusion?

Actually, retail ETFs may get a lift. Not only are the Retail HOLDRS (RTH) "holding" onto a 200-day uptrend, but this exchange-traded vehicle has been logging "higher lows" since August.

click to enlarge

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Disclosure: Gary Gordon, MS, CFP is the president of Pacific Park Financial, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser with the SEC. Gary Gordon, Pacific Park Financial, Inc, and/or its clients may hold positions in the ETFs, mutual funds, and/or any investment asset mentioned above. The commentary does not constitute individualized investment advice. The opinions offered herein are not personalized recommendations to buy, sell or hold securities. At times, issuers of exchange-traded products compensate Pacific Park Financial, Inc. or its subsidiaries for advertising at the ETF Expert web site. ETF Expert content is created independently of any advertising relationships.


Rogers: Buying US T-bills now is a 'terrible mistake' - Investment Week

Investment veteran Jim Rogers has branded US treasuries as the one of the last remaining asset bubbles left in the world.

He said he plans to short US bonds in the future and to buy them now would be a “terrible mistake”.

Rogers told Fox Business Network investors should instead look to hard assets, which will benefit from the US Federal Reserve's continued quantitative easing measures.

"I am not short bonds yet but I plan to be short bonds," he said. "If the world economy gets better, you are going to make money in commodities because that is where the shortages are.

"If the economy does not get better, they are going to print money and when it does get better, you better own commodities, such as silver and rice."

Rogers warned it would be dangerous to own US T-bills now but admitted he had been burned a few times recently when he attempted to short the asset class.

"I plan to be short bonds. I tried a few times before and I have been wrong. Bernanke has more money than I do and he can manipulate the market. But soon I will short them," Rogers added.

According to Rogers, the US Federal Reserve is already engaging in another round of quantitative easing but has not informed the public about it yet.

"The balance sheet has quadrupled in four years. They lie and say we are not having a QE3, but they are in the market," said Rogers.

He added the US was in a much worse predicament than Europe.

"We are in a worse situation than Europe. We are the largest indebted nation in the history of the world and we have states that are bankrupt. Europe as a whole is in better shape. Their bank is not printing money yet, maybe they will, but they are not yet," he said.

"Europe has made serious mistakes. What they should do is let Greece go bankrupt, reorganise and start over. Will they do that? No, they want the easy way."

View the original article here

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Jim Roger's on How To Protect Yourself From Inflation -

Jim Rogers Getty Images

According to the famed international investor, former Soros partner and general market maker, Jim Rogers, the U.S. federal Reserve has continued to pump money into the economy. Rogers, in a recent blog post, described the Federal Reserve as being among the primary dangers to our economy. ”They don’t know what they are doing,” he said. Rogers gives credence to the potential impact of European debt problems and China’s slowing growth rates, but continues to see the U.S. as the main source of the problem.

While Presidential nominees and congress debate the impact of raising taxes on the wealthy and other measures with a questionable impact on the economy, Rogers believes that the nation’s wealth is already being deteriorated. Rogers point to low interest rates and a rising inflation rate as the reasons why the numbers on our bank statements may look the same but will not go as far. Rogers is accusing the Federal Government of what is essentially a smoke and mirrors act to cover up their market tinkering. “Bernanke said last August he was keeping interest rates artificially low,” Rogers said in Yahoo Finance last week.”The only way you can do that is to go into the market.”

Within the article, he directed focus to an increase in the broad M2 measure of the United States Money supply. In spite of the Fed’s second quantitative easing program ending on June 30, there has been a 5 percent rise in the level. In total this represents a 20 percent increase since November 2008. These statistics, according to Roger are representative of major problems with inflation and he adopts the rather unpopular position that he would prefer that the Fed actually raised rates.

“Since August – well, this whole year – the M2 has jumped up,” he said in a recent interview “They’re in the market. They’re lying to us.”

Certainly, with the worries over the global economy and a domestic growth rate near zero, some do not object to the Fed’s presence in the economy and the printing of money. In fact Roger’s position that the group should raise rates could bring domestic economic growth to a tax, considering the low levels at which is stands today. Still, those who believe Roger’s statements regarding the position of the Fed in the economy right now, may want to heed the billionaire investor’s advice in terms of how to protect themselves against inflation.

Like many managers and individual investors, Rogers has been staying short on equities and going long on commodities and currencies. In the past, he has voiced his support for investment in the Swiss Franc, which remains a stable and reigning currency among European debt madness. In addition to the Franc, he is a proponent of Japanese currency investments. The Japanese economy has shrunk significantly as a result of the disasters that occurred there this year, but he believes this presents opportunities. Rogers, alongside the rest of the investing public, acknowledges the reasoning behind why many have fled from the nation’s currency and equities, but believes they have been more than priced into the market.

Beyond his long-term currency positions, Rogers is looking to take a defensive stance in commodities. The commodities tend is largely a defensive move and has been widely embraced amid fears of continued declines in the equity market in 2012. Additionally, commodities investments are among the few positions are protected from inflationary changes. Rogers says that for him, it’s a win-win situation. If the market recovers then the commodities will grow on the basis of increasing demand from China. He stresses that with pay rates rapidly rising in China and the expectations for life quickly shifting upwards, commodities of all kinds, from corn and wheat to industrial metals would all get a boost. In the event the economy continues to struggled and inflation heads higher, then his assets will be tucked away. 

View the original article here

What Jim Rogers Is Buying

Jim Rogers is a legend in the investment world, and if there is one person to listen to, it is him. So what has Rogers been doing?

Rogers remain broadly bullish on commodities for the long term, he told CNBC:
I'm long commodities and currencies, because if the world gets better, the shortages in commodities will make sure I make money; if the world economy doesn't get better, I'd rather own commodities because they're going to print money.

Rogers is long both gold and silver, but is expecting a correction in the short term:

Somewhere down the line gold will have a correction. Gold will continue to do what gold does best. Just give it a chance. I'd probably get more interested at $1,600. At $1,710 or whatever it is today, I'm not buying gold, I'm just watching. And likewise for silver.

Rogers has been bullish gold for a very long time, and has been correct. While he is still bullish on gold and silver, Rogers is more bullish on another commodity: food. Via his blog:

I suspect agriculture products would give better protection during the next several years although gold and silver will be good too – perhaps second best.

Though bearish on the U.S dollar in the long term, Rogers is buying the dollar right now (from CNBC):
I own the dollar, I own some other currencies as well, a year ago everybody was pessimistic about the dollar, including me…when everybody is on the same side of the boat, you go to the other side of the boat for a while.

Rogers is also buying some other currencies, including the Chinese renmimbi, Japanese yen, and Swedish krona. In terms of stocks, Rogers is largely bearish:
Stocks, in my view, in most countries are like they were in the 1970s. In the 1970s stock markets, and economies around the world did not do very much and were in a big sideways trading range for many years. We are in that kind of period now. [China Money Podcast]

I mainly short shares around the world. I have shorted American technology companies, I have shorted European stocks and shorted emerging market stocks. [Rogers blog]

One stock market that Rogers is more bullish on is the Japanese market. From his blog:
They will soon start losing money on the money invested abroad so a massive amount of that money is going to come back home. I doubt that will go into bank deposits or bonds because interest rates are so low. Then at least they can go to commodities or stocks.

View the original article here

Saturday, December 10, 2011

US does not deserve AAA status: Jim Rogers

NEW YORK (Commodity Online): With the US debt situation spiralling out of control, veteran investment guru Jim Rogers believes that the US does not deserve its AAA status.
In an Investment Week interview, when asked about what he thought of Fitch downgrading the US economic outlook, Rogers retorts “Where have they been for the past six years? The US is the largest indebted nation in the history of the world. It has nowhere near AAA status.”
In an earlier interview with Fox Business, Rogers had maintained his grim outlook on the US economy. “The U.S. is in fact in worse shape than Europe. Europe is getting the press these days because the debts are coming due but America is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world. The next time we have an economic slowdown it will be terrible. And it will be sooner than we all had hoped. I would expect it to be around 2012 or 2013”
So what does Rogers advise investors to hold? Gold. Obviously.
The US is currently in $15 trillion debt, with a slowing economy and rising unemployment.


Jim Rogers: Abolish the Fed, Buy Commodities, Short Stocks

NEW YORK (TheStreet ) -- Jim Rogers is bullish on commodities, is shorting emerging market and American technology stocks and says the U.S. economy is in serious trouble.
Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings and legendary investor, gained international fame by calling the commodity rally in 1999 and loves contrarian investments. Rogers sat down first with TheStreet to give his take on the European sovereign debt crisis, the health of the U.S. economy, the possibility of a slowdown in China and his investment strategy for 2012.

2012 Outlook
What's the biggest risk to the U.S. economy in 2012?

Rogers: Probably the Federal Reserve in America because they don't know what they are doing. There are other risks: China is slowing down, Europe's got serious problems. They don't know what they are doing or how to solve it, but I would say the single worst risk is the United States central bank.
And that they would end up printing their way out of whatever slow down we are having?.

Rogers: They already are. They have already started printing money again. And they are printing a lot and they don't seem to understand economics or finance or currencies or much of anything else except printing money.
Why is that the biggest risk compared to say China and Europe as you mentioned?

Rogers: Well, first of all, China is a third the size of the U.S. economy. Europe and America are ten times the size of China. So even if China collapses, it's not the end of the world and even if China booms, it's not going to save the world.
It's important, it's very important but it's not the most important thing. China is trying to slow down and some parts of their economy are going to fail, collapse, they are going to have some bankruptcies.
Europe is certainly extremely important, what's going on there but Europe as a whole is in much better shape than we are. Europe as a whole is not a big debtor. The United States, as a whole, is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world and we've got states that are in trouble -- Illinois, New York, California. Europe has states that are in trouble -- Greece. You know the names as well as I do. No, America is the one we have to worry about the most.
Most investors are now more worried about Europe, however, because they think that we are going to see Greece fail, Italy fail and Spain fail. So what are they missing? Why isn't that the biggest headline they should be looking at?

Rogers: These are problems. Don't get me wrong. These are serious, serious, serious problems. You asked me what the biggest situation is and I am suggesting to you it's the United States. Europe is very important, China is very important, Japan is very important, but America is the biggest economy still and we are the ones with the worst central bank. Our central bank understands less than other central banks and therein lays the risk.

Investment Opportunities
For a retail investor who is not a big hedge fund, who doesn't have all of the algorithms that they can trade off of, who might be say 50% in cash, 80% in cash, what should they do headed in 2012?

Rogers: First, you better make sure that cash is in the right cash. A few years ago many people put their money in Icelandic krona, thought they were very safe. They had currency and they were earning high rates of interest and of course the krona collapsed and some of those people lost all of their money. So make sure you are in the right cash, first of all.
Second, what I am doing with my money is I own commodities and currencies and I am short stocks. I am short American technology stocks, I am short European stocks, I am short emerging market stocks. That's what I am doing but who knows if I am right.


Friday, December 9, 2011

Jim Rogers: 'Real Things' Make Money

Want to make money in the stock market? For investor and commodities bull Jim Rogers, "you have to own silver, you have to own rice, you have to own real things if you’re gonna survive," he told CNBC Tuesday.International investor Jim Rogers The CEO of Rogers Holdings also owns gold, which after 11 years of rising has been "consolidating" for the past three months. "I hope it continues to consolidate. I hope it goes down so I can buy more," he said.

Elsewhere, his strategy is to be short in U.S. technology stocks, emerging markets and European stocks, and be long on commodities, "because if the world economy gets better, I’m going to make a lot of money in commodities," he said.

He also owns currencies including the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc, the euro and even the U.S. dollar, which while "not a safe haven" is nevertheless where investors go in times of turmoil, he said."There’s lots of currency opportunities in the world," he added. "There’s plenty of ways to protect yourself."He said the United States is a bigger debtor nation than Europe, when taken as a whole. Europe has "individual countries that are involvent...but they're in much better shape" than the U.S., with several insolvent American states.But he is avoiding Europe as he waits to see what the European Union leaders announce after their meeting Wednesday.The Europeans will "announce some good things and everybody’s gonna feel better for a while," he said. "Eventually, people are going to say wait a minute, things are worse than they were before. The problem of too much debt is not solved by more debt. That’s ludicrous."

Chinese Are Among Best Capitalists in the World: Jim Rogers

Chinese Are Among Best Capitalists in the World and have a strong entrepreneurial spirit.

Jim Rogers Slams The Fed, Sees QE3, But Cautious on Gold

Legendary investor Jim Rogers’ latest criticism of the Federal Reserve included the contention that the U.S. central bank is “ruining an entire class of investors.”

In an interview with Yahoo Finance’s “Breakout,” Rogers argued that the Fed’s artificially low interest rates are really “something akin to QE3 in drag.”  The Fed is “lying to us,” he stated, “One reason the markets are holding up so well is that they are printing money as fast as they can.”

Rogers – known best for starting the Quantum Fund with George Soros in the 1970's and for his bullish bets on commodities over the past decade – went on to say that the Bernanke-led Fed is continuing to punish savers and kick the can further down the road.  In doing so, the central bank is preventing a sustainable economic recovery from taking shape.

As for his current investment stance, Rogers stated that “I’m long commodities and currencies; I’m short emerging market stocks, U.S. technology stocks, and I’m short European stocks.”

When asked specifically about gold, he presented a more cautious view on the yellow metal.  ”Gold has been up 11 years in a row…it is very unusual for any asset in world history and I’d expect the correction to continue.”

However, Rogers – who has been bullish on gold for the better part of the past decade – noted that despite the potential for a shorter-term decline he does not intend to sell his gold position and would consider adding on weakness.


Thursday, December 8, 2011

Jim Rogers: US Lies About Inflation, Unemployment

Unemployment and inflation rates are worse than the numbers that hit the newswires suggest because the government is able to tinker with the methodology to sugarcoat how bad the economy really is, says international investor Jim Rogers.
"The government lies about the numbers that they put out. Don't take your advice from any government, or you are going to go bankrupt," Rogers told Newsmax.TV in an exclusive interview when asked if unemployment rates will ever return to pre-recession levels.

The official unemployment rate fell to 8.6 percent in November from 9.0 percent in October not due to strong gains in hiring by due to a shrinking labor force, as would-be job seekers quit looking for permanent work, the government reports.

Even so, the figure is probably much higher, Rogers adds.

Story continues below video.

"They make their unemployment figures look better but that's because they jiggle the numbers. If you use independent sources for unemployment, you will see we have serious problems still despite the government jiggling the numbers."

Inflation rates are also misleading, Rogers adds.

Officially, the consumer price index rose 3.5 percent on year in October, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, although inflation stripped of volatile food and energy prices came to an annualized increase of 2.1 percent.

The Federal Reserve tends to focus heavily on the latter when setting interest-rate policies and insists inflation rates are hovering within comfort zones.

The government lies about that also, Rogers says.

"Anybody who buys, who goes shopping knows that prices are going up. Buy food, education, insurance, just about everything that we buy, prices are going higher and the government tells us there's no inflation," Rogers says. "Some independent measures say it's over 6 percent already ... it's going to go much higher because they keep printing money, and as long as they keep printing money, it's going to get worse. So prepare yourself for much higher inflation."

The Federal Reserve has expanded the money supply in an effort to ward off crippling deflation and spur investment and ultimately, hiring.

Such polices have weakened the dollar and applied inflationary pressures to the economy, while unemployment rates remain high, critics charge.

"The problem is having any system that is dictated and where the government has a monopoly — that leads to the problems because they (the governments) always learn to cheat and lie."

Meanwhile, fiscal and monetary stimulus policies have swollen the government's balance sheets, making debt burdens so heavy that the U.S. is moving into dire straits.

"America is actually in worse shape than Europe. Europe as a whole is not a big debtor. The U.S. as a whole is the biggest debtor in the history of the world plus we have our own states, which have big problems: Illinois, California, New York," Rogers says.

"In Europe they've got some states that have serious problems such as Greece, Ireland, etc. But as a whole they are in better shape."

"The reason we are looking at Europe right now is because their debts are coming mature as we speak and soon they are going to be coming due in America, and we are going to have those problems, too."

Don't look to either one political party to save the day, as both Republicans and Democrats are both guilty of spending beyond their means.

"As far as I am concerned, a pox on both of their houses. Mr. Bush did the same thing. The debt skyrocketed under Clinton. The debt skyrocketed even more under Bush. Debts under Mr. Obama, they've gotten worse and worse and worse. The Republicans talk a very good game right now and I hope that they are right when they say we are not going to let spending go higher. I hope that they are right about it," Rogers says.

Even Ronald Reagan wasn't as fiscally disciplined as he should have been.

"When Reagan was president, the national debt doubled. Here was a man if anybody in the past 50 years who said 'we're not going to do this anymore,' and the debt doubled under Reagan."


Marc Faber, Jim Rogers not selling gold, but it’s not all good news forbullion

Investment gurus Jim Rogers and Marc Faber in recent interviews seem to agree on the dynamics in the gold market. Rogers says he’s not selling his gold and Faber says there is no bubble. But that doesn’t mean bullion is not still in a correction phase.

Investment Week quoted legendary global investor Jim Rogers, co-founder of the Quantum Fund with George Soros now based in Singapore, on the outlook for gold on Monday:
“It has been correcting for the past three months so it is overdue for a stronger correction, but I have no idea by how much. It is very unusual for any asset to go up for 11 years in a row with no correction. I own gold and I am not selling my gold.

The price at which I buy will depend on the circumstances. If it is going down because the world is going bankrupt then it would need to be priced at $900 for me to buy it. If there is an artificial occurrence then maybe between $1,200 and $1,400. It depends on what is going on in the world.”

Last week Bloomberg interviewed Marc Faber, fund manager and author of the widely followed ‘The Gloom Boom & Doom Report’ based in Chang Mia, Thailand (the conversation about gold starts around the 11:00 mark):

Faber tells how he recently asked a room full of Asian investors if they owned gold and only a one said yes, which signalled to him that gold was not in a bubble because “if [he] asked the same question about Yahoo! type of stocks ten years ago everybody would have put up their hands.”

Gold’s spike above $1,900 an ounce was a “huge move” and bullion was “still in a correction phase” although it has to be remembered that for the year gold is still up 20%. Faber commented on the record gold price in early September saying at the time “when you buy gold, it’s an insurance against systematic failure and problems in the financial markets.”

The U.S. is a bigger problem than Europe because of our mountain of debt, and could go into a depression by 2013, says Jim Rogers. Our borrowing is still going through the roof. The markets may rally on short-term fixes, but we're the largest debtor natio

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Jim Rogers: US Flirts With 2013 Depression

The United States economy never really emerged from the recession that began in 2008 and is possibly headed for a more chronic depression, and the prognosis for recovery doesn't look good, especially in 2013, says international investor Jim Rogers.
President Barack Obama has tried to spend the economy back into recovery, which never helps, Rogers told Newsmax.TV in an exclusive interview.

When an economy falls into a recession, which normally happens once every four to six years, it needs to run its course, which is painful but healthy in the long run.

Spending money via stimulus packages or through ultra-loose monetary policies resuscitates the economy but not for long and makes the day of reckoning even more painful when it arrives.

Story continues below video.

"We are talking about serious unemployment, we're talking about more losses, we're talking about more bankruptcies. Potentially a depression? Yes, of course, potentially a depression," Rogers says.

"In America we have had recessions every four to six years since the beginning of the Republic. So by 2012 or 2013, we're going to have another one, and it's going to be much, much worse. Whether that's a depression or not I don't know but be very careful because America is getting deeper and deeper into trouble," he said.

What can the government do? Reverse the spending policies of the Obama administration, he says.

"We cannot quadruple our debt every four or five years. We cannot print staggering amounts of money every four or five years. So there's going to come time when we've shot all of our bullets, and it's going to be a big mess."

On top of hundreds of billions of dollars in stimulus measures the administration has rolled out, the Federal Reserve has pumped $2.3 trillion into the economy via quantitative easing, which are asset purchase from banks that critics describe as printed money with little backing that in the end threatens to push up inflation rates.

Government intervention won't work here as it hasn't elsewhere. Japan refused to let troubled financial institutions go under in the early 1990s and as a result, spent two decades mired in sluggish recovery. Scandinavia took the opposite approach when it ran into an economic downturn and today is healthy, Rogers points out.

The world's Central Banks recently launched a coordinated effort to make it easier for European banks to gain access to dollars, a move that seeks to stave off a credit crunch. That's not going to work either, Rogers says.

"It's not going to solve the problem. What politicians try to do always is get to the other side of the next election. This is just going to delay the problem and make it worse in the end. It's going to make it worse because there is going to be higher inflation, higher interest rates, more currency turmoil and we're going to have a lot more problems."

In the U.S., voters go to the poll in 2012 to elect a president, and they aren't going to be happy.

"Unemployment is still higher than it was back in 2008 when Mr. Obama came to become the president. So the idea that got out of that first recession, to me, is a little bit laughable. We're still having serious problems," Rogers says.

Watch out for election-year spending, which may boost markets somewhat but the underlying problems facing the U.S. economy such as a massive debt overhang won't go away.

"The only thing that might be better is that the there is an election coming in November of 2012 and in the meantime Mr. Obama and his friends are going to spend all of the money they can trying to get reelected. So all of those people are going to feel a lot better and they are going to spread a whole lot of money around, but be careful about 2013, because 2013 is going to be a mess."


Going to Get Worse

"The problem of too much debt is not solved by more debt." - Jim Rogers
With markets rallying since Thanksgiving, not everyone is optimistic as we close out 2011. Among those is legendary commodity investor Jim Rogers who cautioned that Europeans may not find a solution to their problems and why the next crisis in the U.S. might be worse.

Jim Rogers even believes the U.S. might head into a depression as we are "shooting all our bullets" and the U.S. continues to go deeper and deeper into debt. On the market, Rogers believes the market may rally short term but believes no real rally will occur due to the underlying problem of high debts not being solved. What he continues to be bullish on are commodities and certain currencies. Currently, Rogers expects gold to decline further as it has gone up 11 years in a row without a major correction. Yet, he is not buying either gold or silver at current levels, but said he will purchase if their prices fall.
GuruFocus "Real Time Picks" reports the stock purchases and sales that Gurus have made within the prior 2 weeks. The report time lag can be as short as 3 days after the date of the transaction. This is just one of the features provided with GuruFocus Premium Membership.

Friday, December 2, 2011

Jim Rogers: QE3, Shorting Stocks, Long Commodities and Currencies

Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, talks about his investment strategy. from Singapore with Susan Li on Bloomberg Television's "First Up" on Monday 29 Nov.  Rogers also comments on Europe's sovereign debt crisis, Federal Reserve monetary policy and the U.S. economy.

Rogers says he does not pay too much attention to the rating agencies upgrades and downgrades as their track record has left him with very little confidence.  Markets may rally on certain short-term fixes or good news, but until some resolution comes to the mountainous sovereign debt, no rally will last.

He also commented that QE3 is already underway if you look at the huge jump up of M2 money supply since August.  In Rogers words, "they are buying something."  He also thinks the world could be better off without the central banks money printing press.

Regarding his current investing strategy, he said he's shorting European stocks, American technology stocks
(He is shorting a package of U.S. technology stocks including Microsoft calls), emerging market stocks, but long commodities and currencies (Rogers owns some euros).

Investors Clinic: Jim Rogers on Metals and Other Commodities

As part of the Alternative Investing special report, CNBC is launching Investors Clinic – the place for investors to get tips about what's hot and what's not, how to diversify and how to get exposure to exotic or new asset classes.

The first in a series of interviews was commodities bull Jim Rogers, who shared his views on metals - especially precious metals – and other investment opportunities.

Rogers answered viewer questions during the on-air interview and in an e-mail interview with CNBC afterwards. Here is a selection of his answers:

Q: Will gold be the best and safest investment?

With gold hitting record after record high, many investors have been keen to get exposure but Rogers believes a correction is due.

"I suspect agriculture products would give better protection during the next several years although gold and silver will be good too – perhaps second best," Rogers said.

He predicted that gold would go through a correction - as the precious metal's price has risen for 11 years in a row - and investors could use this as an entry point.

If the price of gold goes to $1,200 per ounce, Rogers said he would get "extremely excited" about the metal and he would "probably get more interested" at $1,600.

Q: The best way to invest in gold: paper of physical gold?

Some analysts have said the rise in the price of gold may have partly to do with the proliferation of the so-called "paper gold" - exchange traded funds or ETFs using the precious metal as an underlying asset.

"The paper market in gold and precious metals can go both ways because it's a lot easier for people to sell their gold," Rogers said, adding that he owns "some of both."

"There's a lot more speculation now in the paper gold market as it's easier to buy and sell," he said.

Q: What about investing in copper?

In November, the price of copper fell around 8 percent and the metal is down more than 20 percent this year. It is the first annual fall in the price of copper since 2008. Some market watchers have dubbed copper "the poor man's gold."

"I own some copper, but I expect to make more, percentagewise, in agriculture and precious metals," Rogers said.

Q: And diamonds… are they really forever?

The world's biggest miner, BHP Billiton announced on Wednesday it was reviewing its diamond business and may sell the operation. But from an investor's point of view, diamonds are still a good option.

"I own diamonds and expect good things over the next several years," Rogers said. "I imagine things like rubies, sapphires, emeralds, and jade will do better percentagewise. I own them all."


Thursday, December 1, 2011

Jim Rogers reaffirms love for gold, not selling now

NEW YORK (Commodity Online): Jim Rogers once again affirmed his love of Gold and indicated that if prices drop to $1200/oz, he would get extremely excited.

In a recent interview with CNBC, Rogers says, "Somewhere down the line gold will have a correction. Gold will continue to do what gold does best. Just give it a chance. I own gold and I'm not selling my gold”

He stated that if he had to buy a precious metal today, he would consider Silver since it is 40% below its high whereas Gold is trading just 20% off its highs.

Rogers has been a staunch believer in the potential of gold prices and has often publicly stated that one should hold gold and silver in these times of economic crisis. He also believes in the opportunity that lies in Agriculture.

Jim Rogers was the co-founder of the Quantum Fund and is also the creator of the Rogers International Commodities Index (RICI).

Jim Rogers Not Impressed with Central Bank Actions

Jim Rogers thinks that the coordinated actions by the central banks will "make the problems worse."
Five central banks agreed to lower swap lines. The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank as well as the central banks of Canada, Britain, Japan and Switzerland agreed to lower the cost of existing dollar swap lines by 50 basis points starting from December 5.

He thinks that the stock market will rally for a day or two but the core problem of too much debt has not been addressed.

Jim Rogers

Warren Buffett

Nouriel Roubini