Sunday, July 31, 2011

Manager Jim Rogers: U.S. Headed For Default 'One Way Or The Other' -Barron's (blog)

Noted commodities fund manager Jim Rogers says that the United States will “default one way or the other” and that ongoing deficit reduction talks are “a sham” that can’t cover the fact that the U.S. dollar is a “terribly flawed currency.”
The remarks are set to be aired as part of an in-depth interview with the money manager tonight on America’s Nightly Scoreboard show that starts at 9 p.m. eastern time on cable’s Fox Business Network.
Rogers’ firm helped design the Elements Rogers International Commodity Agriculture ETN (RJA). It’s down 1.7% today. Rogers also put together the benchmark for the Market Vectors RVE Hard Assets ETF (HAP). It has dropped 2.2% so far.
In the wide-ranging discussion, Rogers continues to hammer away at big budget deficits and what he sees as a declining greenback in the face of the Fed’s easy monetary policies.
D.C. lawmakers will probably wind up raising the debt ceiling and “announce some kind of wonderful deal, which they will promptly ignore,” Rogers says in advance copy of the interview sent to the media this afternoon.
“It might be good for the world if the United States closed down for a while, but I can’t see that happening,” he said. “Something will happen, things will look better, but then in six months or a year, things will be worse again.”
In terms of investing, Rogers says he’s long commodities and short emerging markets and technology stocks in the U.S.
“I’m also long currencies, I am short a major American bank and short bonds,” he added.
Rogers likes prospects for Japan and owns the yen. He also says:
“I bought Japanese shares when the tsunami came, I think I am probably going to buy some more. I own the U.S. Dollar. It has been terribly beaten down. Everybody is bearish on the U.S Dollar including me. It’s fundamentally a terribly flawed currency. But when everybody is bearish on something it is usually a time to own it.”
The iShares Msci Japan ETF (EWJ) is down 1.2% on Monday. But it has gained more than 6% in the past month.
As to the U.S. Dollar ETF (UUP), it’s surging today by 1.1% and has gained 1.5% in the past month — a rather large move for a developed market currency fund.
On CNBC today, Rogers was talking about silver as “going to go much, much higher over the next decade.”
The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is down 2% so far.

source

Jim Rogers: The US is the Largest Debtor Nation in History - BusinessInsider

In his latest interview with The Wall Street Journal, famed Quantum Fund co-founder and investor Jim Rogers tells it like it is, as usual. Among other choice snippets, Rogers remarks that the current debt talk negotiations are simply a scam and a charade, and are just trying to get publicity. What follows are a few more, and you can view the entire video clip below.

On the US potentially losing its AAA status – The US has lost its AAA status. Anybody who knows what’s going on knows that the US is now the largest debtor nation in the history of the world. It’s only Moody’s and S&P that haven’t figured out what’s going on. The world, the investment world, the financial world knows that America is not AAA anymore. Who cares what Moody’s said? Moody’s has gotten everything wrong in the past 10 years, why do you pay attention to them?

On the US dollar – I own the US dollar because everyone is so pessimistic about it, and usually when that happens something comes along to cause a rally. Everybody sold the dollar under the current scenario, and that could well change.

On US long term bonds – I’m short United States government bonds, long term bonds. I wouldn’t lend money to the United States in US dollars for 30 years at three or four or five, or you name the interest rate.

Jim Rogers: 'Prepare for a Lost Decade or More' - Bull Source


Investor and author Jim Rogers gives his analysis on the US debt ceiling debate, and discusses his move to Singapore.

America will be in worse shape a year from now, Rogers believes, as Washington will continue to spend and drive the nation deeper into debt. Eventually creditors will say “no more”, and social unrest and a currency collapse will ensue, he predicts.

Rogers argues that if politicians deal with the debt issue now, the US may have a hope, after a painful period. “Countries that have gotten themselves into this situation never do anything until there’s a crisis or a semi-crisis,” he comments.

Rogers believes the 21st century will be the century of Asia. Consequently, he has given his children the skills of speaking Mandarin and knowing Asia.



You Think Economic Problems Are Bad Now?


Russia Today (RT) interviews Jim Rogers about the pending US debt ceiling issue and what all this really means for the future of the US economy and for the average American in general.

RT's Lucy Kafanov asks Rogers, "When you say that even if we do reach this deal everthing looks good for a little while but six months to a year it gets worse. What do you mean when you say it gets worse? I mean it's easy to talk about these abstract terms but if you look at the facts, 14.1 million Americans unemployed, over half of all American families live from paycheck to paycheck, more than 44 million are on food stamps. What is it going to look like for those of us who can't afford to move to Singapore?"

To which Rogers replies, "We are all going to continue to get deeper and deeper into debt. ... The overall situation is getting more and more serious. America is now the largest debtor nation in the history of the world. This cannot go on forever. ... You think the problems are bad now? You wait until we don't have any more credit. You wait until the currency is collapsing. You wait until interest rates are going through the roof and inflation is going through the roof. It's not going to be a pretty picture. There will be social unrest. It's going to be a mess. But the sooner we deal with it the better."

Jim Rogers has taught finance at Columbia University's business school and is a media commentator worldwide. He is the author of Adventure Capitalist, Investment Biker, Hot Commodities, A Gift to My Children, and A Bull in China.

Saturday, July 30, 2011

Notes from Jim Roger's presentation on July 21, 2011 - GuruFocus.com


On July 21, 2011 investor Jim Rogers gave a presentation titled “The Keys to Success” to a packed audience in Singapore.


Here are my notes from the event, Jim Rogers spoke for about 20 minutes before doing Q+A for about an hour. He kept having to deflect hot tip type questions. I think he has a very good memory, as he remembered one Q+A person from another presentation a couple of years back. Also, prior to the presentation I heard him ask another attendee about his mother whom Jim had met once before.

On being successful- “Find your passion, focus and persevere”. He was fortunate enough to discover Wall Street when everyone else thought it was a backwater. He loved the game and would have worked for free if he could have afforded it. As it turned out, it paid very well and he was able to “buy his freedom”.

He said the financial market has had its run, and for young people to get involved in farming and mining as there are shortages in both.

On thinking differently– Don’t just listen to people, investigate for yourself. Do the homework and learn the truth about a situation on the ground if possible, and from many different sources. He is raising his children to be independent thinkers.

On hot tips- He won’t give any! Need to do the work yourself or you won’t understand when to sell.

On having kids- “Get on with it!” Best thing he’s ever done.

On the US Dollar- "It’s a terribly flawed currency". But everyone including Jim Rogers is down on it, and when everyone goes one way, it’s often the case that the opposite actually happens. So he’s long US dollar.

On the Yen- Says he's done well with it and it may have a little more to go.

On China- Still very bullish on China. They have had 5 major leadership positions in world history. No other country can claim this, Rome was 1x, Britain was 1x and the US will most likely be 1x. China has proven itself over the long term- although they also have periods of destruction.

On gold and Silver- still likes them both. Thinks Silver has more chance to appreciate as its farther behind its all time high whereas gold has already hit it.

On commodities- Still in a bull market for commodities. Hard assets will continue to do well. He’s an advisor for a European firm that’s buying land in Brazil to farm.

On the US vs. other places- Go to where the money is. The US is now the worlds greatest debtor nation. You should go to where the creditors are. No one ever said, "They owe a lot money lets go there". Everyone's family moved to Singapore at some point- they shouldn't be afraid to move to a more opportune location if needed.

Notes from Jim Roger's presentation on July 21, 2011


On July 21, 2011 investor Jim Rogers gave a presentation titled “The Keys to Success” to a packed audience in Singapore.

Here are my notes from the event, Jim Rogers spoke for about 20 minutes before doing Q+A for about an hour. He kept having to deflect hot tip type questions. I think he has a very good memory, as he remembered one Q+A person from another presentation a couple of years back. Also, prior to the presentation I heard him ask another attendee about his mother whom Jim had met once before.

On being successful- “Find your passion, focus and persevere”. He was fortunate enough to discover Wall Street when everyone else thought it was a backwater. He loved the game and would have worked for free if he could have afforded it. As it turned out, it paid very well and he was able to “buy his freedom”.

He said the financial market has had its run, and for young people to get involved in farming and mining as there are shortages in both.

On thinking differently– Don’t just listen to people, investigate for yourself. Do the homework and learn the truth about a situation on the ground if possible, and from many different sources. He is raising his children to be independent thinkers.

On hot tips- He won’t give any! Need to do the work yourself or you won’t understand when to sell.

On having kids- “Get on with it!” Best thing he’s ever done.

On the US Dollar- "It’s a terribly flawed currency". But everyone including Jim Rogers is down on it, and when everyone goes one way, it’s often the case that the opposite actually happens. So he’s long US dollar.

On the Yen- Says he's done well with it and it may have a little more to go.

On China- Still very bullish on China. They have had 5 major leadership positions in world history. No other country can claim this, Rome was 1x, Britain was 1x and the US will most likely be 1x. China has proven itself over the long term- although they also have periods of destruction.

On gold and Silver- still likes them both. Thinks Silver has more chance to appreciate as its farther behind its all time high whereas gold has already hit it.

On commodities- Still in a bull market for commodities. Hard assets will continue to do well. He’s an advisor for a European firm that’s buying land in Brazil to farm.

On the US vs. other places- Go to where the money is. The US is now the worlds greatest debtor nation. You should go to where the creditors are. No one ever said, "They owe a lot money lets go there". Everyone's family moved to Singapore at some point- they shouldn't be afraid to move to a more opportune location if needed.

What Jim Rogers is shorting- technologies and a major US bank.

Whatever Happens, Commodities Win: Jim Rogers

Jim Rogers, the CEO and Chairman of Rogers Holdings, told CNBC that no matter what happens to the global economy, he will make money with his commodity positions.

"If the world economy gets better, I earn money on commodities. If the global economy gets worse then they will print more money and I will make money in commodities," Rogers said in an interview with CNBC on Monday. With the commodities market highly correlated with the greenback in recent months, Rogers said he is also long the dollar. "I am long the dollar (Exchange: EUR=X) as everyone was bearish. So I am long the dollar. In five years I may not be not be long the dollar but I am now. The dollar and commodities do not have to move in correlation despite what you see on CNBC," Rogers said.

Despite all the volatility on global markets Rogers said he was keeping it simple. "I am long commodities and own a number of currencies. I am short long-dated US Treasurys, I am short US technology, one major US bank and emerging markets," he said.

The short positions would, in Rogers' view, protect him if things get worse for the global economy and he believes the Federal Reserve and other central banks will protect his commodity positions by printing more money . With euro zone finance ministers meeting in Brussels and the Financial Times reporting EU officials are now discussing a plan to bail out Greece again will involve some kind of default, Rogers said the Chinese will continue to buy euro zone debt.

"Someone is going to take a haircut, Greece is going to default, it has to default. But for China giving money to the EU is very cheap foreign aid. They are getting influence for their money," said Rogers.

Jim Rogers

Warren Buffett

Nouriel Roubini