Friday, December 7, 2012

Jim Rogers: Short US Bonds, Likes Russia

Jim Rogers takes no prisoners in the way he makes the case for commodities. The author of “Hot Commodities” is so bullish—particularly on agriculture these days—that hearing what he has to say can leave you a bit unsettled.

Surveying the world of agriculture, Rogers talked about the growing shortage of farmers around the world at a time of tight food supplies. He also reaffirmed his bullishness on gold—and his bearishness on bonds—both of which are closely tied to his skepticism that the U.S. and the rest of the industrialized world will ever get out from under all its indebtedness without some additional crisis.

His most surprising revelation? After dismissing Russia for years as a dangerous investment destination, where losing money was almost guaranteed, he said Russian President Vladimir Putin has changed his approach to foreign investment. That means Rogers is poking around the commodities-rich country looking for ways to profit.

Ludwig: What commodity or commodities are flying under the radar that perhaps investors ought to be looking at more closely right now?

Rogers: I’d have to say agriculture, because agriculture is very depressed on any kind of long-term basis. Sugar prices, for instance, are down about 75 percent or so from their all-time high in 1974—38 years ago. We have been consuming more agricultural commodities than we have been producing in the world for the last decade or so. So inventories are near historic lows, which, of course, is a dangerous situation.

But worse still, we’re running out of farmers. The average age of farmers in America is 58; in Australia it’s 58; in Japan it’s 66. In America, more people study public relations than study agriculture. So the farmers are dying and retiring, and no young people are coming into agriculture. Agriculture is facing a serious, serious problem, so prices have to go much, much higher, or we’re not going to have any food at any price.

Ludwig: So a broad approach would serve investors well, say, in a multicommodity futures-based ETF, such as PowerShares’ DBC or United States Commodity Funds’ USCI?

Rogers: I prefer the Rogers indexes, because they are better constructed to outperform the others. But yes, a broad fund.

Ludwig: Let’s talk about your new securities that just went live here in the United States, the broad family of contango-mitigating RBS ETNs. Can you offer some observations about them—the broad one, and the ones focused on agriculture, energy, industrial metals and precious metals—first in relation to the pre-existing Merrill Lynch “Elements” ETNs that are already on the market and that don’t have a contango-mitigating feature?

Rogers: As you know, the markets do have contango and backwardation. It’s always been the case with commodities, and always will be. These products attempt to mitigate the problems of contango. And so far, the ETNs have been able to do a good job, better than the regular, original index. Will that be the case in the future? I don’t have a clue.

Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Jim Rogers: Id Rather Buy Silver than Gold

"But if gold goes down, I'll buy more..."

IN THE WAY he makes the case for commodities Jim Rogers takes no prisoners. The author of "Hot Commodities" is so bullish—particularly on agriculture these days—that hearing what he has to say can leave you a bit unsettled. When IndexUniverse.com managing editor Olly Ludwig caught up with Rogers recently, he said new RBS' lineup of commodity ETNs that have his name on them are so far superior to the competition.

Surveying the world of agriculture, Rogers talked about the growing shortage of farmers around the world at a time of tight food supplies. He also reaffirmed his bullishness on gold—and his bearishness on bonds—both of which are closely tied to his skepticism that the US and the rest of the industrialized world will ever get out from under all its indebtedness without some additional crisis.

His most surprising revelation? After dismissing Russia for years as a dangerous investment destination, where losing money was almost guaranteed, he said Russian President Vladimir Putin has changed his approach to foreign investment. That means Rogers is poking around the commodities-rich country looking for ways to profit.

Olly Ludwig: What commodity or commodities are flying under the radar that perhaps investors ought to be looking at more closely right now?

Jim Rogers: I'd have to say agriculture, because agriculture is very depressed on any kind of long-term basis. Sugar prices, for instance, are down about 75 percent or so from their all-time high in 1974, 38 years ago. We have been consuming more agricultural commodities than we have been producing in the world for the last decade or so. So inventories are near historic lows, which, of course, is a dangerous situation.

But worse still, we're running out of farmers. The average age of farmers in America is 58; in Australia it's 58; in Japan it's 66. In America, more people study public relations than study agriculture. So the farmers are dying and retiring, and no young people are coming into agriculture. Agriculture is facing a serious, serious problem, so prices have to go much, much higher, or we're not going to have any food at any price.

Olly Ludwig: So a broad approach would serve investors well, say, in a multicommodity futures-based ETF, such as PowerShares' DBC or United States Commodity Funds' USCI?

Jim Rogers: I prefer the Rogers indexes, because they are better constructed to outperform the others. But yes, a broad fund.

Olly Ludwig: Let's talk about your new securities that just went live here in the United States, the broad family of contango-mitigating RBS ETNs. Can you offer some observations about them—the broad one, and the ones focused on agriculture, energy, industrial metals and precious metals—first in relation to the pre-existing Merrill Lynch "Elements" ETNs that are already on the market and that don't have a contango-mitigating feature?

Jim Rogers: As you know, the markets do have contango and backwardation. It's always been the case with commodities, and always will be. These products attempt to mitigate the problems of contango. And so far, the ETNs have been able to do a good job, better than the regular, original index. Will that be the case in the future? I don't have a clue.

Olly Ludwig: So, what's to recommend this particular new suite of products relative to some of these other contango mitigation strategies that are on the market already?

Jim Rogers: Well, these new indexes have outperformed the others so far. Will they in the future? I don't know.

Olly Ludwig: Looking ahead to gold in 2013, what is the biggest factor in gold's continued success? What's your near-term outlook and longer-term outlook in terms of whether this rally still has legs?

Jim Rogers: I own gold and I own silver. I own all the precious metals, especially gold and silver. I'm not sure I would buy right now. Gold has gone up 12 years in a row, which is extremely unusual for any asset, at least in my experience. I don't know any asset that's gone up 12 years without a down year except gold. Gold has had only one decline over 30 percent in those 12 years. That, too, is extremely unusual.

Plus, if you look at the open interest from the CFTC, the speculators have been piling into gold. The number of call options is more than twice the put options. All the signs are that there's too much speculation in gold right now.

I'm not selling, by any stretch. I own it. If it goes down, I'll buy more. If America bombs Iran, I'll probably buy more going up. But I own it and, over the longer term, gold is going to go much higher because the world is doing nothing but printing money. And when the world economies get bad again, they're going to print even more money. But I'm not buying now.

Olly Ludwig: As far as gold and silver right now, which do you see as the more prospective of the two precious metals?

Jim Rogers: On a historic basis, silver is cheaper than gold. Gold is down 10 or 15 percent from its all-time high. Silver is down 30 or 40 percent. So I guess I'd rather buy silver than gold. I'm buying neither at the moment. But if I had to, I'd probably buy silver today rather than gold. But again, I'm not buying or selling either.

Olly Ludwig: Now, on the natural gas front, how much thought have you given to this ramping up of production in the States? There's talk about exports. Do you see that as a realistic prospect that the United States will become a gas exporter?

Jim Rogers: I read the same things you do. But what I don't read much about is the fact that the number of drilling rigs for shale gas has gone down 75 percent in the last 18 months or so. Because it turns out that these wells are very short-lived. They're great for the first 30 days. But by year three or four, they're very expensive to maintain.

Two things come to mind. One is that I presume human ingenuity will solve that problem somehow. But if it's a geological problem and it cannot be solved, then the gas boom is not quite what we all thought it might be. And I'm told the same applies to the shale oil wells.

Again, I don't know if it's a gap in my knowledge, and I need to do something about it to find out. If mankind can solve the problem, then sure, that's going to be a great boon for the world. There's a lot of shale gas and shale oil in the world. A lot of countries have it, it turns out. In all, bull markets and commodities will end some day. And this may be the thing that ends this bull market. But "some day" is still a long way away, as far as I can see.

I'm not rushing out to buy natural gas just because I don't really know the answer yet. If I find it is a serious geological problem that we cannot solve any time soon, then I'll probably buy more natural gas. But at the moment, I'm just watching.

Olly Ludwig: Looking at China and its agricultural imports from the United States, do you see any particular products that are going to benefit more than others, say, corn or soybeans or something else?

Jim Rogers: As you know, they already import soybeans. And consumption of wheat continues to rise in China, with Chinese prosperity, and so does sugar consumption. So anything that China consumes and is in short supply there will benefit from Chinese prosperity. But again, someday the bull market will end, at least they always have.

Olly Ludwig: When might this commodity boom that you first wrote about in your book, "Hot Commodities," run its course? How far is this along? Is there some kind of an end in sight?

Jim Rogers: Well, I don't see the end in sight—yet. Conceivably, the world economy is going to collapse sometime in the next decade. And if that happens, needless to say, then central banks are going to print even more money. It's the wrong thing to do, but commodities will benefit and be a better place to invest than stocks, or certainly better than bonds if that happens.

On a historic basis, we're maybe two-thirds of the way through the commodity bull market. Normally, eight, nine, 10 years into any bull market in anything, you start to see more supply come in. But what happened in 2008 and 2009 means there is a lot of potential capacity or supply that's been deferred or delayed. So we don't have as much supply coming as we normally would in this stage of the bull market.

So this bull market might last longer than most. But again, there's no reason for me to determine that yet. The bull market is still intact. I hope I'll be smart enough to recognize that a lot of capacity and a lot of supply is coming in, because that will be the end of the bull market. But that's still years away.

Olly Ludwig: You've spoken very pointedly about the US and where it finds itself in the arc of its history, with all of the debt and the money printing. I'm wondering if you might comment specifically on what you're witnessing now with the budget talks that are going on, this whole "fiscal cliff"—the possibility of greater taxation coming into focus. Is there anything in all of this that seems to be relatively good news? Or do you continue to see the whole US picture with a great deal of skepticism?

Jim Rogers: None of these talks are going to lead to reduction of the debt. Whether it's the president or the Congress, none of their plans show any debt reduction for a year, if not a decade. So they may just be slowing down the march over the cliff. But they're not solving the problem.

Olly Ludwig: And is there anything in Europe any different? Or is it much the same story line, in your view?

Jim Rogers: Well, in Europe they had, what, 20 summits in the last three or four years? And each time they came out, they solved the debt. Ah, they solved the problem in Europe. And everybody breathes a sigh of relief for a day or a week or a month. And the next thing you know, we're right back where we started. So, no.

Olly Ludwig: Any shorts you have currently that you're willing to talk about?

Jim Rogers: I'm short technology in the US because technology isn't so over-exploited. I'm short emerging markets. I've shorted the bond market. I hasten to tell you I've shorted the bond market two or three times in three years—unsuccessfully. I don't know if I got my timing right this time or not.

Olly Ludwig: And what about unlikely long positions that might be a surprise? I'm thinking about how you were sort of joking you would be long places like North Korea if you could.

Jim Rogers: Mainly long currencies and commodities such as the agricultures, as we've discussed. I would like to find a way to invest in North Korea. The only way I know to invest in North Korea is to buy stamps or their gold and silver coins from North Korea.

And Russia, I'm looking for ways to invest. I've been skeptical about Russia for 46 years, since I first visited there in 1966. I'm changing my view on Russia. I have not made any investments there yet, just because I haven't found any.

Olly Ludwig: What is it about Russia that suddenly looks a little bit more palatable to you at this point?

Jim Rogers: Actually, since 1917, the Russians have said, "When it's your money, then invest here, and we'll all get rich." And as soon as you did that, they took it away from you, or shot you, or put you in jail, or whatever. But I have the view that Putin, for whatever reason—I'm not going to speculate about his reasons—that the government has changed now in Russia, and realizes they have to play by the same rules that everybody else does if they're going to prosper.

And so, if that's the case, Russia has gigantic potential. They've got everything in the world there: huge natural resources. They're trying to develop the transportation network so that they can transport goods from Asia through Siberia. And they're spending huge amounts of money doing it. If it works, it would save a lot of time and money to get goods to Asia instead of going by ship. It would ruin Singapore, of course, because Singapore would be wrecked by the new transportation route. Anyway, there are various things that I see happening that give me encouragement for the first time in my life about Russia.

This interview was republished at Hard Assets Investor

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Hardassetsinvestor.com is a research-oriented website devoted to sharing ideas about investing in the natural resources sector. Published by Van Eck Associates Corporation, the site offers an educational resource for both individual and institutional investors interested in learning more about commodity equities, commodity futures, and gold – the three major components of the hard assets marketplace.

Monday, November 26, 2012

Commodity Guru Jim Rogers is Still Bullish on Gold -- Should You Be, Too? - StreetAuthority

President Barack Obama's first term was very good for precious metals. Silver was up an eye-popping 236% while gold added an impressive 128% gain, both handily beating the S&P 500's 75% return.


Those big gains have more than a few investors concerned about another asset bubble in a long list of bubbles that includes technology, finance and housing in the past 12 years. But according to legendary investor Jim Rogers, the precious metals crowd has nothing to worry about now that Obama has been reelected.

The billionaire co-founder of the Quantum fund with George Soros is telling the market to expect more of what we've seen in the past four years. The loose monetary policy, further quantitative easing and weak dollar will support the upward trend in gold and silver, according to Rogers. "Investors should prepare for rising prices and more expansionary monetary policy now that President Barack Obama has won reelection. "If Obama wins, it's going to be more inflation, more money printing, more debt, more spending," Rogers recently told CNBC. The investor also said he plans to sell federal debt and purchase more gold and silver.


So if Jim Rogers is correct, then investors should expect big things from precious metals in the next four years. But with all kinds of precious metals investments to choose from, the landscape can be confusing. With this in mind, here are my three favorite strategies to benefit from the rising tide in gold and silver, ranked from lowest to highest risk.


Lowest risk: Physical gold and silver
Investing in physical gold and silver has become very popular in the past five years with the release of new exchange-traded products (ETFs) such as SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) and iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV). These types of ETFs provide investors with direct exposure to underlying precious metals prices. These instruments have become very popular among investors because they have low expense ratios and reduce company-specific risk related to production volatility, earnings and cash flow.  


ETFs like SPDR Gold Shares and iShares Silver Trust have handily outperformed most gold and silver mining stocks in the past few years as investors have bypassed the miners in favor of a more conservative approach to the market. Longer-term, gold and silver prices probably have less upside than miners do, but they also provide more price stability.


Medium risk: Basket of gold miners
The next level of risk up from physical gold and silver is to buy a basket of mining stocks such as Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE: GDX), another ETF that holds a basket 30 gold- and silver-mining stocks with operations across the world.


This is another strategy for investors who want to protect their portfolios from company-specific risk, which is incredibly high in the gold-mining industry due to production uncertainty and political troubles in less developed regions of the world. This is a little more aggressive than investing in actual gold and silver but lacks the high risk-reward ratio of an individual miner. With a net expense ratio of .52%, Market Vectors Gold Miners falls below the category average of .63%.


Highest risk: Individual miners
This is definitely the highest risk category in the list of strategies to invest in gold and silver. There is a big difference between investing in a smaller operation valued between $1 billion or $2 billion and a global mining powerhouse such as Freeport-McMoRan Copper and Gold Co. (NYSE: FCX) and Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX), each valued at about $35 billion. Barrick Gold CEO Jamie Sokalsky has said that every $100 increase in the price of gold will produce an extra $400 million in cash flow for the world's largest gold company. This is a great example of the incredible leverage mining companies provide to rising precious metals. Bear in mind that bigger mining companies offer more earnings transparency, while small miners have more upside. Either way, of the three strategies, this is your highest risk-reward investment.


Risks to Consider: The biggest risk to gold is a liquidity crunch like the one we saw in the financial crisis of 2008. The trigger for an event like that could be Europe, which continues to struggle with too much debt and shortages of tax revenue. Although the region continues to combat its financial problems, margins calls for big investment banks and intuitional traders would weigh on gold and silver.


View the original article here

Sunday, November 25, 2012

Jim Rogers is Betting Against this Entire Sector, Should You Too? - StreetAuthority

Billionaire investor Jim Rogers may be most famous for calling the bottom of the commodities market and buying in 1999, just before it surged 22% during the following three years while the S&P 500 lost almost 40% in the same period.

But the co-founder of the Quantum Funds with George Soros could be just as famous for some of his warnings. In a 2007 interview with Reuters, Rogers predicted a 40-50% drop in real estate prices in some areas of the United States and a massive recession across the country.

We all know how that prediction turned out.

So it's no surprise investors take note when the legendary investor makes any market prediction. And Rogers is now warning that one sector of the market is "priced in lunacy," so he is betting heavily against the group. The sector has seen earnings fall by 4.3% in the third quarter compared with the same period last year, almost double the decline of 2.2% for the overall market.

So which sector could be headed for a big drop?

Rogers is talking about technology.

Bears have a lot to growl about...To be sure, there are several reasons the technology sector is due for a correction. The sector outperformed all others during the past four years with an annualized gain of 19%, while the S&P 500 Index gained 12% in the same period. This outperformance may already be working itself out with a drop of 10% so far this quarter compared with a decline of 6% in the rest of the market.

 In terms of valuation, the stocks in the Technology Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLK), for example, currently trade for about 13 times trailing earnings, which is right at the average for the overall market, but higher than that of the financials and energy sectors. And dividend yields are not as good either. While many of the big players such as Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) and Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) have started to pay dividends, the sector as a whole only pays a 1.7% dividend yield compared to an average of 2.1% in the overall market.

Of more concern, four years after the financial collapse, U.S. companies have yet to really ramp up hiring. While Europe and China are looking incrementally better, the United States is facing a huge fiscal gap in the coming quarters, with even the most optimistic forecasts only calling for about 1.5% gross domestic product growth. With labor already cut to the bone, companies are putting off improvements in tech spending ahead of the fiscal and economic uncertainty.

One big clue to the level of frothiness in the tech sector could be coming from the rebound in real estate prices in Silicon Valley. Real estate has soared in the tech capital and prices are off their peak by just 1.3% in some cities, while much of the rest of the state continues to struggle with foreclosures.

Bulls still have room to run in individual stocksThere may yet be hope for the sector. Tech companies in the United States earn more revenue outside U.S. borders than any other sector, making the tech industry more resistant to fiscal cliff worries and weakness here at home. Revenue should be marginally supported if Europe can stage a rebound or if emerging markets continue their economic march higher.

President Barack Obama will need to barter with Congress if he wants to let the Bush-era tax cuts expire for those making more than $250,000 a year. One possible deal could revolve around another tax repatriation holiday like we saw in 2004. Under a repatriation holiday, U.S. companies are lured to bring foreign profits back to the country by taxing them at a roughly 5% tax rate, rather than the current 35% corporate rate. Because the tech sector has the most overseas revenue, it also has the most cash held overseas, so it could win big with such a tax holiday.

In addition, Microsoft launched Windows 8 in October and will stop supporting Windows XP in early-2014. This could reinvigorate the corporate spending cycle for information technology (IT) and services. Further, if demand in fact rebounds, then tech spending usually leads the business cycle because it is easier to buy IT and services than to add staff.

Quality and value vs. hopes and dreamsEven Rogers admits there will always be success stories, but the problem is when an entire sector is pushed up without any real difference between the good and the bad. This was evident in some of this year's catastrophic IPOs -- Facebook (Nasdaq: FB) and Groupon (Nasdaq: GRPN).

Investors seem to have forgotten the lessons of the 2000 tech bubble, and are now paying meteoric prices for very little in earnings. While Groupon and Facebook have seen their shares sink since their IPOs, shares of LinkedIn (NYSE: LNKD) are up almost 10% since its offering in May 2011. LinkedIn is basically Facebook for professionals and does not command nearly the audience, so why is it that shares are trading for more than 665 times trailing earnings? Only a handful of other stocks in the market trade so expensively, and they are all small or mid-cap companies. Earnings are down during the last two quarters and the company has yet to present a clear strategy to monetize on mobile usage.

While there are plenty more examples of unrealistic prices in the tech sector, there are also some good deals. I wrote in September about the once-in-a-decade opportunity in Intel (Nasdaq: INTC). The shares trade for just 8.8 times earnings and pay a 4.5% dividend yield. Investors are worried that the emergence of smartphones and tablets will make PCs obsolete, but, as I mentioned before, there are several catalysts coming next year that could send the stock dramatically higher. The company is extremely well-run, with an operating margin higher than 95% of peers in the industry and has bought back $1.4 million in shares this past quarter.

Risks to Consider: Half of investing is keeping your profits before the bottom drops out of the market. Companies with strong balance sheets and good value should do well during the next year, but may see a short-term drop as investors take the entire sector lower. Investors should be ready for a short decline on sentiment before stronger stocks head higher.

Action to Take --> After years of outperformance, the tech sector could be due for a correction, as Rogers expects. You may not want to neglect the entire sector, but be selective and know when to take your money off the table. Given the valuations in much of the sector, investors may want to avoid some of the more expensive stocks and the general sector funds. For those who do not want to completely avoid the sector, look for large-cap companies with strong balance sheets that pay healthy dividends such as Intel.

Thursday, November 8, 2012

5 New Jim Rogers Commodities ETNs Coming Soon

The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), the issuer behind the Trendpilot series of ETNs, is nearing launch of five new ETNs, all based on renowned commodities guru Jim Rogers’ Enhanced Rogers International Commodity Index (RICI) series. The four other ETNs will track RICI subindexes focused on agriculture, energy, precious metals and industrial metals.

Will see more turmoil in currency & oil markets

Jim Rogers says commodities are still the best bet and he won’t buy equities because he doesn’t see equities going up with all the money printing

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Investing In Commodities: A Mini-Guide - FN Arena News

Legendary investor Jim Rogers is now an old man who likes to chat about the joys of two growing up daughters and about his adventures when he was traveling around the world, twice; once on a motorbike and once with a modified beaming yellow sports car.

But when Rogers shows up at investing or mining conferences, the audience is more anxious to hear about his views and predictions for the world, for opportunities and investments and, most likely, for investment opportunities in commodities.

After decades of (literally) fame and fortune, Rogers' all-encompassing view today comes down to one simple, straightforward prediction: global governments have become addicted to the apparent virtues of their money printing presses; they will use it more and more, and more, and more.

It's the ultimate political heaven: in the short term it looks like all evils and wrongs are being dealt with, while the real effects won't be known for a much longer time but by then, such is the dynamic of democratic government, there will likely be another government in power instead.

Rogers' active investment career spans many decades, during which he became a wealthy man. Yet, today, he does not own one single government bond, not one single share on a stock exchange and no investments in real estate. He put all his money in commodities. He never sells, only wants to buy more.

Because of his macro-view, Rogers is convinced the last investment asset left standing will be hard assets; commodities. Under a worst case scenario, he believes, commodities will lose less of their value than shares and bonds and paper currencies and properties. Under a best case scenario, commodities are yet to experience a genuine rampant investment bubble.

Guaranteed outperformance, that's how Rogers sees it. Both his daughters speak fluent Mandarin and already have their own investment portfolio which contains of -you guessed it- 100% investments in commodities.

Rogers admits he also has some shorter-term positions in a handful of currencies, but only for a limited time. Ultimately, he believes, all paper currencies will suffer from the loss in confidence that will come, at some point during this process.

For investors looking to build up their own commodities investment portfolio, Rogers has one piece of advice: pick the five that are the furthest away from their all-time peak in price. Then start your research. Pick the three that are most likely to move back up again.

His current favourite is sugar. Do you know sugar is currently priced some 75% below its all-time peak from the 1970s, he lectured the audience at a recent mining conference in Singapore. And guess what's in the pockets of his jacket: a silver coin, a few gold coins and a handful of sugar sachets from the coffee table in the back of the room.

Take a few for yourself, he tells the audience. It's free!

Rogers' tongue-in-cheek investment advice lays bare the counter-intuitive truth behind successful investing in commodities: big profits are made from bottoms but most investors only get interested closer to the top.

Libertarian billionaire sees serious economic slowdown over next two years - Examiner.com

Jim Rogers is a well respected and widely followed investor who, since earlier this year, has been predicting a 'financial armageddon' for 2013 through 2015 regardless of who won last night's election for the White House. Now with President Obama firmly in place over the next four years, Rogers is suggesting America will experience fewer jobs as the federal government continues to print and borrow money to live beyond its means.


In an interview overnight with The Economic Times Rogers said, "They will probably come up with some kind of quick fix, but then whatever fix they do in the end, it is likely be the wrong thing. These guys have been doing the wrong thing for the 50 years in America. America 50 years ago or even 40 years ago was the richest and most powerful country in the world. Now America is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world. And the same guys who made this mess, do you think they are going to fix it? No, they are not going to fix all the problems. They are going to make the problem worse." When asked what he is doing with his money, Rogers replied, "I am going to buy more commodities, I am going to be short on United States government bonds, but I am long on the US dollar at the moment. I do not know if I am going to stay long on the US dollar, but I am long on the US dollar."


The United States is headed for what has been referred to as the 'fiscal cliff', whereas on December 31, 2012 a series of economic policies expire which could put America in serious disposition and if not resolved by the current Congress and signed by President Obama, then we could be worse off than Rogers is suggesting. If nothing is done it will trigger the expiration of the Bush-era tax cuts, across-the-board spending cuts to most discretionary programs will occur, we will revert back to the 2000 year levels for the dreaded Alternative Minimum Tax, workers will go back to paying an additional 2% payroll tax on Social Security, ObamaCare taxes come into effect while federal unemployment benefits expire.The net effect is likely to be a reversal of the current trend for unemployment in America to more Americans losing their jobs with the unemployment rate above 9% which could be devastating for the country.


View the original article here

Monday, October 22, 2012

Russia and commodities are good

Having been negative on Russia his entire career, Jim Rogers said, “I’m convinced things are changing in Russia for the first time.”  Rogers is looking into investing in Russia and is still bullish on agriculture. He says “with all commodities, the most important factor is supply and demand”. Inventories are near historic lows and farmers are few.

Friday, October 19, 2012

US Lost decade

Jim Rogers has said "the idea that you prop up people who are bankrupt is what Japan did. Japan had two lost decades, America will have a few lost decades," Rogers says both gold and silver should be good investments and if he had to pick one he favors silver over its precious metal counterpart.

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

I Rather Invest in Russia Than the US: Jim Rogers - CNBC.com

Jim Rogers would rather invest in Russia than the U.S. stock market. “In 2013 and 2014 we’re going to have economic problems,”  the noted investor told CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Monday. “Either (politicians are) going to raise taxes or they’re going to bungle something.”

He added, “Raising taxes has never made the economy grow." Jim Rogers is shorting U.S. stocks, particularly technology. “Technology has been one of the few places that is very exploited,” he said. He is short Microsoft calls and an ETF with Apple in it, he told CNBC.
Rogers is looking at Russia instead. Having been negative on Russia his entire career, Rogers said, “I’m convinced things are changing in Russia for the first time.”  But he’s still looking for a way to invest, it might be in the stock market it might be in the currency, he said. In September, Rogers joined Russian investment bank VTB as an advisor to their agricultural division. Rogers is also short India and isn’t investing in China just yet. India is a “complete disaster,” with high inflation and balance of trade problems, according to Rogers.

He also only buys China when it collapses. "And it hasn’t collapsed yet,” he said.


Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Jim Rogers: Newfound Love For Russia And The Gradual Improvement InIts ... - Forbes

I wanted to highlight a story I saw the other day because I think that it nicely encapsulates the (slow!) improvement in Western perceptions of Russia’s economy.

Jim Rogers is the co-creator of the Quantum fund, a best-selling author, a regular guest at Ivy-League business schools, and generally one of the world’s most successful, famous, and high-profile investors. He was in the news recently because he has just taken a job as an adviser to the agricultural fund run by Russian state-owned banking group VTB. In a press release announcing the move, Rogers was quotes as saying that “Russia and the CIS region have all the ingredients needed to become the world’s agriculture powerhouse. It seems that everything may now be coming together under VTB Capital to make this happen, so I am keen to participate.”

Rogers, as the FT and other outlets have noted, was famous as a Russia “bear.” But simply calling him a “bear” doesn’t really do justice to the strength of his former views. As the FT astutely noted, Rogers was so ostentatiously negative in his views on Russia that a back-and-forth e-mail exchange he had with Dmitri Alimov, a Russian MBA student at Harvard Business School, made it all the way to the New Yorker.

I think it’s worth digging a little deeper into that New Yorker story, and into the e-mail exchange between Alimov and Rogers, because the positions that Rogers espoused back then are basically identical to those still made by many Russia bears today. Rogers essentially based his negativity towards Russia on four main factors: 1) that people were abandoning Russia 2) that Russian oil production was declining 3) that investors were abandoning Russia and 4) that figures showing improvement in Russia’s economic figures were unreliable and probably doctored.

Alimov countered by noting that 1) Russia was, in fact, experiencing net immigration 2) that Russian oil production was increasing and was likely to continue doing so 3) that investors were, if not flocking to Russia, then certainly not abandoning it and 4) that Russian economic statistics weren’t doctored and that other organizations, such as the US government and the World Bank, also thought the situation was improving.

Ben Aris, in his original FT post, dug up a genuine re-production of the entire e-mail exchange, and, with the benefit of 20-20 hindsight, Rogers’ position does not come off in the best light. In his response to Alimov, Rogers tended to eschew any actual data and instead went with “common sense” observations such as:


This is not from “Reuters”. It is from the Russian government – the same group which claims to have had a balance of trade surplus for the last 9 years. The same group of bureaucrats and charlatans who became a laughing stock with their “facts” under  the USSR.

Every now and then when I publish something about Russian demographics someone will show up in the comment section making that exact same argument, saying something to the effect of “but Mark, everyone knows that Rosstat manipulates their statistics and that Putin tells them to lie to make things look better.” That certainly seems reasonable enough, the Russian government really is quite corrupt and ineffective, but it’s not intuitively obvious and its certainly
not something that anyone should believe purely on the basis of vague allusions to the Soviet Union. Handwaving of this sort is both incredibly common and incredibly dangerous.
With the benefit of hindsight, we can see pretty clearly that Alimov was right and that Rogers was wrong. If, back in the fall of 2003, you were an investor with a lot of money to throw around and you thought that Alimov was a Kremlin-manipulated dullard and that Rogers was saying harsh and uncomfortable truths (and therefore went short on the ruble and the Russian stock market) you would have gotten absolutely wiped out over the next 5 years. Russia, in 2003, really was in the midst of a long-term boom and its economic fundamentals really were increasing as a rapid clip: it wasn’t an illusion or the result of simple manipulation by the dread Kremlin.

As should be seen from the e-mail exchange (which people ought to read in full) Rogers was not simply a “bear” he was the capo de tutti capi
of people who thought that Russia was a doomed and collapsing nightmare of a place. That he has now not only agreed to invest  in the country but to work on behalf of a state-owned Russian bank is dramatic in a way that’s hard to overstate. A rough equivalent, I think, would be if Richard Dawkins got religion, quit Oxford, joined a monastery on Mount Athos, and penned an updated version of Mere Christianity.
While it would be a mistake to read too much into a single individual action, Jim Rogers is, I think it’s safe to say,  incredibly well respected in the finance and investing community. There are an awful lot of people in the West who (quite understandably) follow his lead and trust his judgement. That Rogers’ views on Russia and its economy have undergone such a complete reinvention in less than a decade shows just how quickly history moves. It also shows, I think, that Russia’s economic image is finally starting to turn a corner and that informed investors understand that there is a lot of money to be made under the right conditions.

Rogers’ move is essentially a long position on commodities, food, and the basic continuity of Russia’s current institutions: all things considered, I think it’s a perfectly reasonable bet.

Jim Rogers: QE3 Will Make the Fed “Look Like Fools Again” - Yahoo!Finance (blog)

Early Wednesday morning Germany's Federal Constitutional Court ruled that plowing taxpayer money into the the ECB's latest plan to prop up the euro zone economy was not unconstitutional (double negative theirs), freeing the way for the implementation of the European Stability Mechanism to start buying sovereign bonds of member nations. In English, Europe is now free to start their own slightly muted version of quantitative easing.

Jim Rogers, the legendary investor and chairman of Rogers Holdings isn't impressed. The latest ruling and the Draghi plan (announced last week, which catalyzed a significant rally) make everyone feel a little better but does nothing to cure what really ails the world. "We're all going to pay a horrible price for this in a year or two or three," Rogers tells me in the attached video. The fact that Europe seems to be intent on performing a euro version of QE only gives the Western world "unanimity towards mutual destruction."

The upside of the U.S. having the ECB joining it in printing money to artificially suppress yields is that it take some pressure off the Federal Reserve to keep doing the same thing. In a global financial world, yields are a relative game. If the U.S. fake risk-free yields are slightly more reality-based than those in Europe, the laws of supply and demand would suggest increased organic buying of American debt as opposed to the synthetic buying created by quantitative easing. The existence of Europe's OMT plan gives the Fed a decent chance to ignore cries for QE3 without crushing the market. Such thinking forms the lynchpin of the argument being made by those who don't think the Fed acts tomorrow.

"QE1 failed, QE2 failed, so I'm not so sure they would announce QE3, because they'll look like fools again," says Rogers. Reluctance to look silly aside, the "Investment Biker" doesn't think no QE means the same thing as less Fed stimulus. The Fed has the stated goal to keep rates between zero and 1/4% through 2014. How they go about doing it is largely semantics.How and why would the Fed throw good money after bad, particularly in an election year? "Because Mr. Bernanke wants to keep his job." Sometimes the truth is both ugly and simple.

Monday, October 1, 2012

Jim Rogers says invest in Russian market - NASDAQ

Famed investor Jim Rogers suggests the Russian market may be undervalued and could present significant opportunity for investors. Rogers stated that after a recent visit to Russia he came away impressed with progress influenced by the actions of President Vladmir Putin. Although referring to Putin as a criminal, he felt Putin realizes he must do things differently. Rogers cited a pool of billions of dollars the government has set aside for investments to be made alongside private investors. He cited his own assessment of the low valuation of the Russian market along with an unfortunate concentration in oil and gas.

Rogers is not yet invested in the Russian market, but is considering it after observing the country's ebb and flow for the better part of twenty years. He believes the country has learned its lessons from the past and should be a better investment in the future. Rogers says he is interested in buying the ruble.

CNBC also quoted Todd Berman, Head of Investment Banking at Troika Dialog, as having said that Russia's recent entry into the World Trade Organization is a major accomplishment which will help advance reforms that should propel the Russian economy forward.

Rogers commented on the United States in the context of the upcoming election. Making the claim that the biggest difference between the two candidates is "one comes from Chicago and the other comes from Boston" he sees no fundamental difference in how things will be in the States post-election. His outlook is fundamentally negative and his interest in the Russian market is evidence of the ongoing need for investors to look to emerging markets for future investment returns.

Given Rogers negativity toward the U.S. and his recent and increasing interest in Russia, if he is proven correct, then both RSX and RSXJ may be good candidates for investment. If Russia, which has been less affected by European woes, can continue with a proactive agenda of reform and investment, there is no reason the "undervalued" Russian market cannot flourish.


Jim Rogers, Peter Schiff Rip Bernanke And The Fed - Insider Monkey(blog)

After the official announcement of QE3, a number of hot-shot analysts and experts have come out with their opinions on how the policy will impact our future. The majority have warned about the coming fiscal cliff and how this may only make that worse, while others have been a bit more brash about their distaste for actionsfrom Bernanke and the Fed. Two men in particular, Peter Schiff and Jim Rogers, have been very vocal about their hatred for this policy but they have also both touted commodities as the best way to play another massive injection of money into the economy [for more economic news and analysis subscribe to our free newsletter].

Let’s start with Schiff. Watching interviews and or reading some of his work, it is quite clear that this is a heated subject for him. In his eyes, the Fed should have let the economy fail back in 2008 and all of the QE programs have just been delaying the inevitable. He feels that Bernanke’s bold policy will actually inhibit growth and job creation. He has also stated that the Fed will never be able to produce a vibrant economy through money printing, as QE is simply a drop in a much larger bucket of issues. With his prediction of the dollar index dipping to 40 or even 20, Schiff feels that real assets like silver and gold are the best place for investors to be in the coming months.

Jim Rogers is another who has publicly ripped the Fed for their actions in recent years. He feels that Bernanke and company do not know what they are doing and that printing more money will never solve our problems. “Maybe sometimes in the short term printing money has alleviated the situation, but anybody who has studied history or economics knows that printing money in the longer term doesn’t work”says Rogers. Rogers has long been warning of a deep recession in the next few years, putting him right in line with Schiff, as both feel that we are heading for a financial crisis [see also Protect Yourself From Debased Currencies, Jim Rogers Style].

Mr. Rogers has also gone on to take a few jabs at the current presidential candidates, calling the outcome of the election irrelevant. According to the legendary commodity investor, neither candidate properly understands the deep-seeded issues of our economy and neither will be able to fix it. Working off of his predictions, Rogers has touted investments like agriculture and precious metals, although he has been very clear about stating that he feels silver is a much better investment than gold for the time being.


Monday, August 13, 2012

Jim Rogers, Commodities Trader, Profits From Drought-Driven High CornPrices - Huffington Post

Jim Rogers said that he's making money from the drought and happy to see higher corn prices.
Across the Midwest, one of the worst droughts in decades is ravaging crops and driving the price of corn and other basics to record heights. It’s bad news for consumers, who will pay more at the supermarket as crops whither in the punishing heat.

But famed commodities trader and finance author Jim Rogers is making money.
Since the beginning of June, the index he owns -- the Rogers International Commodities Index for Agriculture, or RICIA, has jumped 18 percent. The index, which tracks the price of crops globally, is up roughly 10 percent for the year.

"I’m ecstatic to see prices going higher because [that] might save the day,” said Rogers by phone Tuesday. “People like you are sitting around saying ‘Oh my God, evil speculators are making money at the expense of [consumers]. ... If you’re worried about evil speculators making money, go to the field and drive the price down.” He added: “Who’s going to produce this food if the prices don’t go higher?”

Agricultural commodities prices are so low that farmers can’t make a good living, Rogers argued. And as this generation of farmers gets older, low prices mean less incentive for others to join the profession. All this is a recipe for a global crop shortage due, in part, to cheap corn, he said.
“America produced 200,000 MBAs last year and fewer than 10,000 agriculture [school] graduates,” said Rogers, echoing a point he’d made to Business Insider earlier in the month.

“Are [farmers] going to work for nothing? You better hope prices go higher and people make money. If they don’t, we’re not going to have any food.” Rogers added: “For the first time in recorded history, we don’t have anyone to go plant the crops.”
Asked how the farmer shortage he described relates to the current Midwest drought -- a function of weather, not labor supply -- Rogers responded that if there were more incentive for farmers to produce more, they would be dumping corn onto the U.S. market to make up for the shortfall. "That’s what happened in the past,” he said.
Scott Irwin, professor of agricultural economics at the University of Illinois, said skyrocketing corn prices will hit supermarket goods like milk, meat and eggs in particular, because corn is central in livestock diets. “It will be the equivalent of a regressive tax on consumers,” he said. “Those who spend a greater percentage of their income on these basic goods will hurt the worst.”
Irwin said he agrees that the low price of corn helped contribute to the current drought-induced crisis. “The prices were too low,” said Irwin, and farmers had little incentive to plant more than enough in previous seasons to make up for a possible future drought. But he disputed the idea that low corn prices led to a shortage of farmers. “I don’t know of any agricultural economist in the world who would agree" with Rogers, he said. “We have plenty of farmers.”
Irwin said short term prices are likely to continue to rise. That may mean more tough luck for consumers and, as Rogers pointed out, bad news for commodities traders who bet on normal harvests this season.
But it’s good news for some farmers and for investors like Rogers, who said there’s nothing wrong with what he’s doing.

"Until the prices go high enough and stay high enough long enough, we’re not going to have any farmers," Rogers said. "Where is the food going to come from, unless 'evil speculators' make a lot of money? Unless somebody invests a lot of money in agriculture?"

Jim Rogers, Scientists, Economists, and Geopolitical Analysts IssueDramatic ... - ETF Daily News (blog)

Terry Weiss: Money Morning In a riveting interview on CNBC, legendary investor Jim Rogers warned Americans to prepare for “Financial Armageddon,” saying he fully expects the economy to implode after the U.S. election.
Rogers, who for years has been an outspoken critic of the Feds policies of “Quantitative Easing,” says the world is “drowning in too much debt.” He put the blame squarely on U.S. and European governments for abusing their “license to print money.” In the U.S. alone, the national debt has surged to nearly $16 trillion, that’s more than $50,000 for every American man, woman and child.
“[They] need to stop spending money they don’t have,” Rogers said. “The solution to too much debt is not more debt… What would make me very excited is if a few people [in the government] went bankrupt…” Rogers added.

"Nationalism will emerge. Healthier countries will not see fit to spend their hard earned money to bail out their less responsible neighbors."
CLICK HERE to get your Free E-Book, “Why It’s Curtains for the Euro”
Rogers also charged Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel with promoting dangerous policies that create the illusion the economy is stable… but are really only intended to buy time before their upcoming elections.
“Mrs. Merkle has an election next year,” Rogers said. “Mr. Obama has an election in November. The Americans and the Germans – they want to do everything they can to hold the world up until after the next election.”
“It’s going to be bad after the next election.” 

In a newly released documentary that went viral last month, a team of influential economic experts say they have discovered a “frightening pattern” they believe points to a massive economic catastrophe unlike anything ever seen in the history of the world.

The work of this team of scientists, economists, and geopolitical analysts has garnered so much attention, they were brought in front of the United Nations, UK Parliament, and numerous Fortune 500 companies to share much of their findings. Click on the short video above to see the eerie pattern.
And according to these experts – who have presented their findings to the United Nations, the UK Parliament and a long list of world governments – the catastrophe may happen well before Americans hit the polls in November.
“What this pattern represents is a dangerous countdown clock that’s quickly approaching zero,” said Keith Fitz-Gerald, the Chief Investment Strategist for the Money Map Press, who predicted the 2008 oil shock, the credit default swap crisis that helped bring about the recession, and the Greek and European fiscal catastrophe that is still wreaking havoc until this day.
“The resulting chaos is going to crush Americans.”
Another member of this team, Chris Martenson, a global economic trend forecaster, former VP of a Fortune 300, and an internationally recognized expert on the dangers of exponential growth in the economy, explained their findings further:
“We found an identical pattern in our debt, total credit market, and money supply that guarantees they’re going to fail,” Martenson said. “This pattern is nearly the same as in any pyramid scheme, one that escalates exponentially fast before it collapses. Governments around the globe are chiefly responsible.”
“And what’s really disturbing about these findings is that the pattern isn’t limited to our economy. We found the same catastrophic pattern in our energy, food, and water systems as well.”
According to Martenson, these systems could all implode at the same time.
“Food, water, energy, money. Everything.” GET A FREE TREND ANALYSIS FOR ANY STOCK HERE!
Dr. Kent Moors, one of the world’s leading energy analysts, who advices 16 world governments on energy matters and who currently serves on two State Department task forces on energy, also voiced concerns over what he and his colleagues uncovered.
“Most frightening of all is how this exact same pattern keeps appearing in virtually every system critical to our society and way of life,” Dr. Moors stated.
“It’s a pattern that’s hard to see unless you understand the way a catastrophe like this gains traction,” Dr. Moors says. “At first, it’s almost impossible to perceive. Everything looks fine, just like in every pyramid scheme. Yet the insidious growth of the virus keeps doubling in size, over and over again – in shorter and shorter periods of time – until it hits unsustainable levels. And it collapses the system.”
Martenson points to the U.S. total credit market debt as an example of this unnerving pattern.
“For 30 years – from the 1940s through the 1970s – our total credit market debt was moderate and entirely reasonable,” he says. “But then in seven years, from 1970 to 1977, it quickly doubled. And then it doubled again in seven more years. Then five years to double a third time. And then it doubled two more times after that.
“Where we were sitting at a total credit market debt that was 158% larger than our GDP in the early 1940s… By 2011 that figure was 357%.”
Dr. Moors warns this type of unsustainable road to collapse can be seen today in our energy, food and water production. All are tightly connected and contributing to the economic disaster that lies directly ahead.
According to polls, the average American is sensing danger. A recent survey found that 61% of Americans believe a catastrophe is looming – yet only 15% feel prepared for such a deeply troubling event.
Fitz-Gerald says people should take immediate steps to protect themselves from what is happening.
“If our research is right,” says Fitz-Gerald, “Americans will have to make some tough choices on how they’ll go about surviving when basic necessities become nearly unaffordable and the economy becomes dangerously unstable.”
“People need to begin to make preparations with their investments, retirement savings, and personal finances before it’s too late,” says Fitz-Gerald.

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

JIM ROGERS: Albert Edwards And Hugh Hendry Are Dead Wrong About China - Business Insider

 Investment guru Jim Rogers has long been bullish on China.

And hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry and Societe Generale's Albert Edwards have long been bearish on the Asian giant.


In an interview with Investment Week, Rogers said China is sticking with its long-term plans for slowing-down the pace of economic growth. To that end he had this to say about Hendry and Edwards:


“Hugh has been dead wrong about China for three years now and China has not collapsed as he predicted, loudly, verbally and widely,” said Rogers.


“Albert has been bearish on everything for a long time. So if you are telling me he is bearish on China and bullish on everything else that would be different. But no, he is bearish on everything, including you, me and Mother Teresa.”


Rogers said China will face challenges just like the U.S. did in the nineteenth century. Meanwhile, he is watching for a sharp sell-off in Chinese shares to buy more.

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Jim Rogers: 'Myanmar Best Investment Opportunity In The World' - Seeking Alpha

by Steven Orlowski

In an exclusive interview with OilPrice.com, Jim Rogers declared Myanmar to be the best investment opportunity in the world, with North Korea not far behind. His exact words were:

"Probably the best investment opportunity in the world right now is Myanmar. In 1962, Myanmar was the richest country in Asia. They closed off in 1962, and now it's the poorest country in Asia. I see enormous opportunities there because they're now opening up. It's like when China opened up in 1978. There were unbelievable opportunities going forward. The same is true in Myanmar now in my view. North Korea, I expect to see the same sorts of developments."

Both countries are difficult to access. There are no ETFs dedicated to Myanmar, and certainly not North Korea. As we reported in April, one way to access Myanmar is through Thailand. "Thailand is Myanmar's largest export market and second largest import market, the latter of which is set to boom with an easing of import restrictions and a progressively freer Myanmar market."

The way to invest in Thailand is through the MSCI Thailand Investable Market Index Fund (THD). This allows you to indirectly profit from Myanmar, and directly benefit from Thailand's business relationship with the country.

Another way to access Myanmar is by investing in the entire region, known as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Formed on August 8, 1967 the Association of Southeast Asian Nations is a geo-political and economic organization of ten countries located in Southeast Asia. The original membership included Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Since then additional countries include Brunei, Myanmar (Burma), Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam.

The opportunity in the region is great, and Myanmar is certainly in a position to benefit. Until it becomes more accessible we have to be satisfied investing in the entire region or specific countries like Thailand. Here are a few data points regarding the ASEAN region:

According to the Financial Times, by 2015 economists expect the ASEAN region to consist of a middle class of 300 million people driving consumption and economic growth.The World Federation of Exchanges states that ASEAN countries have a combined market larger than India, Brazil and Russia – that's a stock market capitalization of approximately $2.09 trillion.China Daily reports that in 2011, the ASEAN region overtook Japan as China's third largest trading partner. Trade increased 24% to $362.3 billion in 2011 and is expected to exceed $500 billion by 2015. The ASEAN region is expected to become China's top trading partner.

With all this great activity and Mr. Rogers' proclamation that Myanmar is the "best investment opportunity in the world", I suggest taking a look at the Global X FTSE ASEAN 40 ETF (ASEA). "The Global X FTSE ASEAN 40 ETF seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the FTSE/ASEAN 40 Index." This fund is a great way to invest in the ASEAN region but it has its shortcomings. It only invests in the five original members: Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia. Not unlike THD, you will be receiving indirect benefit from Myanmar. But this is as good as it gets for now.

If the prognostications are correct and Myanmar is able to successfully continue its path toward freer trade and capitalistic growth, I would expect ASEA and more funds to come will expand their country diversification and become even more targeted.

Ultimately it is obvious that any investor looking toward future growth needs exposure to the ASEAN region. I think Mr. Rogers may be correct about Myanmar. Now, what did he say about North Korea?


View the original article here

Jim Rogers: The World's Agricultural Problems Are Much Bigger Than The ... - Business Insider

 The Midwest is facing a severe drought that is causing corn and soybean crops to wilt under severe weather conditions.

The current temperature has exceeded records from the Dust Bowl era, and the drought is now spanning the widest area since 1956.


Commodities guru Jim Rogers, however, says while this drought is severe for those suffering from it, there are much larger problems in agriculture as a whole.


In a telephone interview he said, "the drought is a big deal if it's not raining on your farm. But it is good for farmers in other parts of the world. You can't have perfect weather conditions everywhere, every year. And with all the other problems, we're hitting trigger points."


What are these other problems?


Rogers rattled off a list. The highest rate of suicide in the UK is among farmers. The average age of farmers in Japan is 66 and the average of farmers in the U.S. is 58. In India, hundreds of thousands of farmers have committed suicide in recent years.  He even noted that more people study public relations than agriculture.


Rogers said the media may be focused on the drought, but these longer-term problems that are much bigger.


"The world faces serious problems in agriculture. We are facing shortages of everything. The inventories are near historic lows so any problem will have an immediate, profound effect. We are facing a shortage of farmers so any problems will turn into even bigger. 


...But any weather problems will have big effects because of the dire situation in farming. Agriculture will be one of the best sectors of the world economy for years as I have told you often."

Monday, July 16, 2012

Food Demand Is On The Rise: Why Jim Rogers Is Investing In Farmland (DBC ... - ETF Daily News (blog)

Don Miller: Legendary Wall Street trader and best-selling author Jim Rogers recently offered this unconventional advice: If you want to get rich, you should be investing in farmland.


Back in 1999, Jim Rogers recommended gold when it was trading at $252 and silver at $4. You know what happened after that.


Now Rogers thinks investing in farmland will pay off in a big way.


“It’s the farmers, the producers, who are going to be in the captain’s seat when the prices go through the roof,” he told The Australian Financial Review.


Food Demand on the Rise


Consumers in places like China and India – where an emerging middle class suddenly can afford a better diet — are eating more of everything, especially high-protein meat.


But they have a long way to go to catch up to Western levels of meat consumption.


According to Time Magazine, the average American consumes about 250 pounds of meat a year. Meanwhile, the Chinese average roughly 100 pounds a year, while Indians eat less than 10 pounds a year.


As the middle class in these and other emerging markets expand in the coming years, demand for meat will explode.


But to increase meat production, farms will need a lot more grain to feed the livestock. Half of U.S. corn production already goes to feed cattle, pigs and poultry.


A prediction in a recent advertising campaign from Monsanto Co. (NYSE:MON) illustrates the immense demand that’s just around the corner. The company said the world’s farmers will need to produce more food in the next 50 years than farmers have produced in total over the last 10,000 years.


Soaring demand for grain has already affected the market. Monsanto said global grain consumption has exceeded total production for seven out of the last eight years.
“The world has got a serious food problem,” Rogers told Time. “The only real way to solve it is to draw more people back to agriculture.”


Milking Profits From Farmland


Meanwhile, new technology over the last 20 years has helped U.S. farmers significantly increase production. Redesigned seeds have increased yields and the use of computers has vastly improved planting techniques.


Such changes have pushed corn production from an average of 91 bushels per acre in 1980 to 152 bushels per acre in 2010. That, along with higher prices, is boosting profits and making farmland dramatically more valuable – and farmers richer.


Net farm income is expected to clock in at roughly $97.1 billion in 2012, the second highest on record according to the USDA.


Meanwhile, the average price for farmland has been rising since 1980, and now exceeds $2,000 an acre. Prices for prime land in some parts of the country have gone as high as $6,000 an acre.


Here’s something else to consider.


Farmland typically is held for long periods of time and usually comes on the market only when the owner passes away.


But today the average U.S. farmer is 58 years old. The USDA estimates that over one-third of all farmland owners have less than 15 years left to live.


That aging population represents a window of opportunity for investing in farmland.


Investing in Farmland


Over the last 100 years farmland, based on income and capital appreciation, has consistently delivered positive returns — with only three brief periods of negative returns (1930s, 1980s, and 2008).


And as the saying goes, they just aren’t making any more of it. So a severe imbalance is developing in the supply and demand of farmland.


Farmland is also an opportunity to invest in an asset class not directly correlated to stocks and bonds, and one with significantly less volatility.


Jim Rogers believes investing in farmland is “in its third inning.” In other words, there’s still plenty of time to get in.


He was recently in Australia to launch a new farmland fund with the goal of raising as much as $350 million to buy farms in New South Wales.


That’s fine for Rogers. But how can the rest of us start investing in farmland?


One way is to invest in agricultural futures through Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) like the PowerShares DB Commodity Index (NYSEARCA:DBC). The fund tracks an entire basket of agricultural commodities including corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, sugar, coffee, cattle and pigs.


Canadian citizens can invest in Agcapita Farmland Investment Partnership, a farmland private equity fund, with significant holdings in Saskatchewan, Alberta and Manitoba. Jim Rogers is actually an advisor to the fund, currently open to retail investors for a minimum investment of $10,000.


You might also take a look at Adecoagro S.A. (NYSE:AGRO), a Luxembourg-based company that owns significant farmland holdings in South America. It owns nearly 500,000 acres of farmland, consisting of 23 farms in Argentina, 13 farms in Brazil, and one in Uruguay.



View the original article here

Jim Rogers: Duck and Cover, Your Cash Is NOT Safe; Buy PhysicalGold ... - ETF Daily News

Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul: As another sign that American institutions have degenerated toward banana-republic class, what was once considered safe and risk-free, cash balances held at brokerage firms as well as many other institutions, are no longer safe, according to legendary investor Jim Rogers of Rogers Holdings.

With the latest scandal involving $215 million of missing customer funds at Chicago-based privately-held futures trading firm Peregrine Financial Group Inc. (PFGBest) a distinct trend has emerged that will most likely reveal in the months and years to come that the entire financial system is riddled with fraud, the level of which, could be so pervasive and systemic as to provide for the proverbial ‘black swan’ bank run of the collapse of the global financial system—despite central banker efforts to prop asset prices up with sanctioned counterfeit money. “No such thing as safe when you talk about it,” Rogers told OilPrice.com in response to a question regarding investing during times of crisis.  “Even if you put your money in cash, if you put your money in the wrong cash, you lose a lot of money. As the people in Iceland have found out, as the people in Europe on the Euro have found out.  So, no such thing as safe.”

The 69-year-old Rogers has gone on record on more than a dozen occasions that he sees terrible times for the U.S. economy and markets after the November elections, with the years 2013 and 2014 drastically changing the mood among Americans from one of hope to one of panic and despair.

“The problem is: I expect to see serious economic problems in 2013 and 2014 in the U.S,” Rogers said.  “If and when that happens, we’re going to see a final panic in the markets and the economy and everything will have a crescendo and a selling climax.”

And a continuation of the economic downturn, which began in 2008, is expected to reveal, not only how bad and to what extent the economy and investment marketplace have deteriorated, but how much of the shocking state of decline of enterprise America has been hidden from the public through the complicity of the traditional media outlets.

Though Rogers wears a reputation as a mild-mannered straight-talking billionaire, appealing to a more-general audience of investors, another Jim, investment newsletter writer Jim Willie, in contrast, ‘gives it’ to his readers hard, fast and dirty.

“The entire financial system of the Western world is imploding,” Willie, the publisher of the famed Hat Trick Letter,
said in an interview with Bull Market Think,Dec. 5, 2011.  “There is exponentially rising risks for individuals and their money…the risk right now–is people losing their entire life savings. I cannot seem to get people to understand this.”
Willie, who, before the crash of 2008, was referred to as “Crazy Jim” by his peers for his seemingly outrageous market and social-political predictions, warned investors in December 2011, a month following the MF Global fraud, “Several million private accounts may vanish–Brokerage accounts, Pension funds, Mutual funds; they’re all at risk.  We are getting into the middle stages of implosion, where I believe the public will not wake up until at least one million private accounts are stolen, and completely vanish.”

It now appears that another Jim Willie “crazy” prediction has splashed cold water of truth on the faces of his critics, with the straight-laced Rogers now backing him up.

Irrespective of style and tone, both the pre-baby boomer Jim Rogers and baby boomer Jim Willie have communicated their analysis of today’s America and financial system to a broad audience desperately seeking wisdom and advice during these most extraordinary times.  And, again, for the record, both men advocate holding gold during the bizarre financial, political and geopolitical upheaval we witness on a daily basis, because, as former partner of Jim Rogers at the famed Quantum Fund, George Soros, has said, “Act II” of the global financial crisis is yet to come.

Nothing but gold (silver, too) in your hands comes with a counter party or access to tax from a criminal government desperate enough to confiscate your wealth to keep their power.

Monday, July 9, 2012

Jim Rogers Prediction: America Will Certainly Go Through A Period OfDefault ... - ETF Daily News


 13-year host Rick Wiles and famed investor Jim Rogers of Rogers Holdings discussed many of the same topics Rogers’ is asked to update from time to time, on many programs, including the gold market, Europe’s woes, the US dollar, and the economic outlook of Asia.
But Rogers ended the interview with a bang, taking on the controversial subject weighing on a growing number of Americans: Is the US headed into an extreme social/political catastrophe?  And by implication, should Americans head for the exits?  Wiles, himself, struggles with this question, as he’s intimated to his listeners in the past that he’s seriously considering relocating outside of the United States to avoid “life-threatening” dangers brewing within the republic. Though Rogers did not go on the record by recommending Americans flee the US, the 69-year-old Singapore resident did, however, paint a rather gruesome picture of future difficulties confronting America (not dissimilar to Gerald Celente’s warnings) and the likely unpleasant and shocking reaction by an oligarchical government against its own people.

"Nationalism will emerge. Healthier countries will not see fit to spend their hard earned money to bail out their less responsible neighbors."
Wiles, who earlier in the broadcast nearly became speechless in complete disgust after reporting President Obama’s latest and bizarre executive order regarding the president’s sudden ‘state of emergency’ relating to Russian nuclear material (Jun. 25, 2012), asked Rogers to speculate about what America will look like in 20-30 years.

Rogers said:

Thirty years from now. . . we [America] will certainly have been through a period of default . . . There’s more than one way to default, you can print money, pay people off, pay them off with worthless currency.  You have a default. . . De facto, you’ve defaulted, but . . . you’ve paid off the debts, but the people who receive that worthless money are not very happy.  And that’s going to happen in the US.  You’re going to see institutions that we’ve known in the US for decades are going to disappear, or totally turned over.  Lehman Brothers had been around for 150 years.  Bear Stearns had been around 80 odd years, or something.  You’re going to see more of that.  You’re going to see more universities disappearing.  Some of the Ivy League schools are essentially bankrupt, or we’ll find out that they’re bankrupt.  So you’re going to have huge, huge turmoil, many museums, hospitals, art galleries, many things that we’ve known and loved, are going to be in serious trouble, disappear, and in the meantime you’ll have new companies, institutions rise.

Now, does that lead to war?  It always has.
  America has been warlike as you know for the past many decades, several decades anyway.  No doubt we’ll get into more wars and it’s not going to be fun.
Wiles asked Rogers about the obvious trend in America towards preparations of a police state, and will this trend accelerate in the future as the US standard of living declines?

Rogers said:

Well, it always has throughout history and in any country in the world that this sort of thing takes place.  Governments are going to want more and more power, they blame the problems on financial types, they blame the problems on foreigners and they always close off more, putting more controls, eventually also blame it on journalists, because they’ll say, ‘if journalist didn’t write about these problems, we wouldn’t have these problems.’  It always happens that way.  As I say, America has been already been fairly warlike in the past several decades, but it will get more so.  Right now, as you know, the government, drifting for the last decade or two, are now going into our garages, our bank accounts, our bedrooms.  They can do anything they want.  Not only that, America can execute you, they murder you if they want to.  The president has a secret committee, sit down and say, ‘we don’t like Sally Jones.  We think she’s doing things wrong.’  They can execute you—murder you.  And they don’t even have to go to a judge.  They just do it.  This is the law .  It’s mind-boggling to those of us who grew up in the United States . . . This has all happened in the past decade, or so.  It’s not what it used to be.  It’s bordering on the war between the states.  Lincoln abrogated right of Habeas Corpus, even threw into jail who didn’t agree with the war.  This is much worse than that, potentially.

The two men ended the interview with Rogers pointing out one of the observations of the ancient Greek philosopher Plato (424/423 BC – 348/347) regarding social/political trends—a warning of the likely outcome of a morally, economically and spiritually collapsed America—an America in complete chaos.

“Plato, when he wrote The Republic
said, the way societies evolve, they go from dictatorship, to oligarchy, to democracy, to chaos, and then back to dictatorship, and it starts over again,” Rogers ended the interview.  “Unfortunately, Plato has been right more than he’s been wrong about that.”

Jim Rogers Explains Why He's Still Bullish on Oil - CNBC.com

World markets appear to be hovering over a precipice as Europe’s sovereign debt crisis, slowdowns in India and China and further bank downgrades threaten to send stocks and commodities down even further. Falling oil and gas prices may offer some respite to consumers, but are they enough to help the economy or are they a symptom of deeper problems?

To help us look at these issues and more, we spoke with well-known investor, adventurer and author Jim Rogers. Jim is the creator of the Rogers International Commodity Index, he also recently completed a book called: "A Gift to my Children"—which helps people learn from their triumphs and mistakes in order to achieve a prosperous, well-lived life.
In the interview, Rogers talks about the following:

• Why recent oil price falls are a good buying opportunity
• Why oil prices could fall to $40 a barrel
• Investment opportunities with the renewable energy sector
• Why he is optimistic about nuclear energy
• Why agriculture offers good opportunities to investors
• Why Myanmar is the best investment opportunity in the world right now
• Why there could be further unrest in the Middle East
• Why we should let Greece fail
Interview conducted by James Stafford of Oilprice.com.
Oilprice.com: It’s been an interesting period in the energy world as we’ve seen oil prices steadily decline over the past few months, and with the problems in Europe and slowdowns in India and China, do you expect this trend to continue?
Jim Rogers: Well, there is certainly a correction going on for various reasons. I think Saudi Arabia's trying to help re-elect Mr. Obama. There are also stories that JPMorgan has problems in its London office with a lot of unauthorized positions they're having to liquidate. I don't know what's going on, but I do know that corrections are normal in the industrial world. There's nothing unusual about it. If it continues, there’s an opportunity to buy more.
Oilprice.com: I read a report by the Economist Phil Verleger, who thinks that the Saudis' massive increase in oil production, along with other economic problems could cause oil prices to crash to $40 a barrel oil and $2 a gallon gasoline by November. Do you think this is a reasonable forecast, and we could see oil at these levels?
Jim Rogers: We could see anything. We certainly saw lower prices than that back in 2008 when there was a collapse. When things are collapsing, all sorts of strange things happen. We found that out in 2008, and we will probably find out in the future, as well. If oil does go to $40, that means it'll just be setting up an even more bullish scenario for the duration of the bull market.
Oilprice.com: How do you see the energy markets reacting to the Iranian sanctions, which are going to be coming into effect on the first of July?
Jim Rogers: Oh, I don't see that having much effect at all. Everybody already knows about that—nothing new to the markets. They have long since adjusted to this news, whether it be stock markets, smuggling, etc. The Iranian sanctions are a non-event as far as I'm concerned.
Now, an attack on Iran would not be a non-event, but this is just more noise.
Oilprice.com: The Middle East Petocracies, along with Venezuela and Russia, must be nervously watching the price of oil. Can you see potential problems developing in these countries and other oil producing nations if prices continue to fall?
Jim Rogers: That's part of what I was saying before. The lower prices go for the fundamentals, the price of fundamentals improve, but for these countries the money they have available to buy peace is running out and there are going to be problems, because a lot of people have been lead to believe that the government can solve their problems and if the government runs out of money, it makes people upset.
Oilprice.com: Crude oil has dropped from $108 a barrel in February to $84 today. Do you think low oil prices could provide an economic stimulus?
Jim Rogers: Certainly, it's an economic stimulus for everybody who buys oil. There's no question about that. On the other hand, for people who produce oil, it's a negative. Now obviously more of us buy oil than produce oil, but it’s important to remember it does cut both ways.

Oilprice.com: Less than 0.1 percent of U.S. cars and trucks run on natural gas, and with falling natural gas prices and America’s dependence on oil and vulnerability to oil price shocks—I was hoping to get your thoughts on natural gas usage for transportation?
Jim Rogers: Well, If natural gas stays this low compared to oil prices, it does give an incentive to develop natural gas-powered vehicles, and I think we are going to see more and more developments here. Is it going to end the use of oil, combustion engines? Probably not any time soon. Someday it could, but someday is a long way away.
Oilprice.com: Do you believe natural gas prices are near to a bottom, or do you think they have further to fall?
Jim Rogers: U.S. natural gas is somewhere near its bottom, in my view. The problem is I expect to see serious economic problems in 2013 and 2014 in the U.S. If and when that happens, we're going to see a final panic in the markets and the economy and everything will have a crescendo and a selling climax.
We're certainly a lot closer than we were. Although, when you have a selling climax in markets, you go to levels much lower than most people believe possible and that may happen. Whatever that bottom is, it's not too far from the recent lows in natural gas.
Natural gas in many other places such as the UK are much, much higher than they are in the U.S. 

Sunday, July 8, 2012

Jim Rogers: The Huge Gold Sell-Off Might Only Be Halfway Done -Business Insider

Commodities guru Jim Rogers believes the current 20 percent correction in gold prices could continue for a while longer.

In an interview with OilPrice.com published on CNBC.com, Rogers said the time for investors to jump back in to the metal is unknown for now.
"I've actually owned gold for longer than 11 years. I'm not buying now. Gold went up 11 years in a row, which is extremely unusual for any asset. I don't know of any asset in history that's gone up 11 years in a row without a correction.
"Corrections are normal and are the way things should work, the way things do work. Having said that, I don't know when the correction will stop. It's normal in my experience for corrections to go down 30 or 40 percent. It's just the way markets work."
But none of this means that you shoudl short gold either
I'm certainly not selling my gold, because I suspect gold will be much, much, much higher over the next decade.

View the original article here

Monday, July 2, 2012

Financial 'Armageddon' Will Happen Despite EU Deal: Jim Rogers -CNBC.com

Even as markets cheered the agreement by European leaders to allow the direct use of the bloc’s bailout funds to recapitalize struggling banks, well-known investor Jim Rogers told CNBC the move does nothing to help solve the region’s biggest problem, which is its high debt levels.“Just because now you have a way to get them (the banks) to borrow even more money, this is not solving the problem, this is making the problem worse,”

Rogers said on Friday.“People need to stop spending money they don’t have. The solution to too much debt is not more debt. All this little agreement does is give them (banks) a chance to have even more debt for a while longer,” he added. After negotiating late into the night, European policymakers agreed on Friday morning that the bloc's bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), would be able to lend directly to recapitalize banks without increasing a country's budget deficit, and without preferential seniority status.Summit leaders also agreed that euro area rescue funds could also be used to stabilize bond markets without forcing countries that comply with EU budget rules to adopt extra austerity measures or economic reforms.

Countries such as Spain and Italy have been burdened with sky-high borrowing costs – levels seen as unsustainable for governments in the long term.Rogers argues that the deal does not improve the solvency of indebted nations such as Spain. Spain's central government budget deficit has soared to 3.41 percent of GDP in the first five months of 2012, above the EU limit of 3 percent.He adds that the governments need to stop coming to the rescue of failing banks, even if it results in “financial Armageddon.” “What would make me very excited is if a few people went bankrupt or a few people started paying off their debt. We are going to have financial Armageddon anyways, when the rest of the world is not going to give these people any more money.”“What are you going to do in two, three, four years when the market suddenly says ‘no more money’ and the Germans don’t have more money and the American debt has gone through the roof.”Rogers says the market euphoria brought on by the news, which saw a surge in Asian stocks, the euro and risk assets like oil, will not last. “How many times has this happened in the last three years – they (EU leaders) have had a meeting, the markets have rallied, two days later the market says wait a minute this doesn’t solve the problem,” he said.Rogers, who is an advocate of commodities-based investing, says he is not adding any positions at the moment. “I own commodities, I’m delighted they are going up today – they are going up a lot. I’m not jumping into anything.”


View the original article here

Sunday, July 1, 2012

Jim Rogers: Short Stocks, Go Long Oil - CNBC.com

Jim Rogers' advice amid all the global economic turmoil: Short stocks, consider commodities and to heck with European bailouts.
A day after the billionaire investor told CNBC that the Spanish bailout was "absurd," he amplified on his point that letting any country go bankrupt wouldn't be the worst thing.

"New York City went bankrupt, the world didn’t come to an end. Mississippi went bankrupt once, the world hasn’t come to an end. Detroit’s bankrupt, the world hasn’t ended," Rogers said Tuesday on CNBC's "Closing Bell."

So if banks in ailing Spain and Greece go bankrupt, bondholders and bankers will lose money, he shrugged.
"What happens is you reorganize and you start over. It’s been happening for a few thousand years. There’s nothing new about it."
Had the U.S. not let Lehman Brothers fail at the start of the 2008 recession, "we would still be suffering," he said. "They would still be bailing out everyone in sight."
His strategy in the event of a global selloff: Sell short.

"I’m not advocating because I’m short, but I’m short because I think there are going to be more problems in the world economy in the next year or two. That’s how you protect yourself in times like this," he said. "What they’re doing is they’re making this situation worse."
Why?
Because bailouts and printing money only add to the debt burden, Rogers said.
"What I see happening is more and more bailouts, higher and higher and higher debt," he said. "We’re going to have a worse recession next year and 2014 because the debt is high. ... In 2007 and 2008, the recession was worse because the debt was higher; 2013 and 2014, the debt is up to the ceiling. The recession is going to be worse. This is not going to be fun."
Rogers sees oil as a good investment over the long haul.
"The price of oil may well go down for a while. China is slowing down, India is slowing down, a lot of places are slowing down," he said. But "over a decade the price of oil is going to go through the roof. The surprise is going to be how high the price of oil stays and how high it goes. That doesn’t mean it cannot go to $70 in the meantime. But if it does, you should buy a lot of oil."
And gold "If it goes down, I’ll buy more," he said.
But would he buy stocks?
"Not that I can think of," he said. "If stocks collapsed around the world I would have to buy a lot more stocks. I would buy stocks again, but I don’t see that happening. I’m telling you, the economy is going to be bad next year. Why buy stocks in the face of something like that?"

View the original article here

Tuesday, June 12, 2012

Buy a farm, says investment guru - Stock and Land

AS Europe's debt crisis rattles global equity market confidence farming is being increasingly championed by many as a sound, long-term bet for investors needing a safe haven for their money - particularly superannuation funds.
"I'd urge anyone to buy a farm," said high profile international investor and author Jim Rogers, whose rise to success included co-founding the powerful Quantum hedge fund in the US with billionaire George Soros.
Rogers, who has a keen eye for value investments and correctly forecasted the past decade's bull commodity "super cycle", strongly recommended buying agricultural investments ahead of gold.
But back on the farm it's still hard work convincing cashed-up pension funds in Australia or overseas to modify their investment strategies to take advantage of many big and small scale rural opportunities on offer.
While some big superannuation names from AMP to US-owned Westchester Group have had lengthy farm sector ties, the rush of corporate and foreign money into agriculture is not as dramatic as it seems according to those in the investment business.
"The average superannuation fund is very focused on relying on half-yearly, quarterly, even daily dividends, with a big discrimination towards liquidity," said retiring managing director of the $145 million Sustainable Agriculture Fund (SAF), Frank Delahunty.
"Agriculture is not a liquid investment. You can't easily sell in and out of farming assets.
"That's a big reason it doesn't easily fit the short-term thinking which most investment funds are skewed towards."
Investment vehicles like SAF tended to be seen more as niche ventures - despite it owning five big aggregations covering 29,000 hectares between North West NSW and Tasmania, and backed with money sourced from funds such as Auscoal, AustralianSuper, AMP and Christian Super.
Sydney-based agribusiness capital raising principal Bruce Tweedie said the story was similar for private money investment in agribusiness.
While interest was strong converting it into real spending wasn't easy.
He said bad publicity surrounding managed investment schemes, their hefty management fees and a reliance on tax refunds for dividends had hurt agriculture's investment image, further complicating the task of promoting farming to outsiders.
However, with overseas investors now burnt by dissolving equities and derivatives markets, he said interest in "real" ag assets was serious, notably from London ("they have a history of understanding overseas agricultural investment in the UK"), Shanghai, Hamburg and Toronto.
Inquiry through Tweedie Capital - which targets the $10 million to $100m investment range - leaned towards cotton and dairy enterprises, followed by grain and sheep.
Mr Tweedie's investment targets were well-run individual properties which would ideally retain their current owners as managers for the new investors.
With many families reaching a point where they must think about farm succession issues and what to do with their land it was relatively easy to find good farms to offer.
"Quite a few farmers approach us simply looking for a capital injection, but that isn't so attractive to investors," Mr Tweedie said.
"If they're putting up serious money of $10m or more they tend to want control."
SAF's Mr Delahunty, agreed that while many farmers liked the idea of getting outside capital to help them with debt recovery and expansion plans, most investors considered such arrangements more trouble than they would be worth.
"And if you're already a top performing farm business you're probably too strong minded to want to accept another major shareholder having much say."
Mr Delahunty said SAF's own strategy was following the footsteps of specialist overseas farmland management funds which had already proven that "patient capital" invested in the top 25 per cent performers was well worth the effort.
Those with runs on the board included the $2 billion Westchester - a division of a giant US teachers pension fund - which began investing in North American farmland and has owned Australian farms for 20 years.
"It's a prime example of an overseas super fund which is very comfortable with the long term returns from 400 agricultural property assets," Mr Delahunty said.
"Unfortunately our own investment sector tends to only think about property if it's city commercial real estate with the assurance of monthly rent cheques."
Reaffirming its enthusiasm for farmland in these troubled investment times Westchester's parent, TIAA-CREF recently contributed to a new $US2 billion fund buying more land in the US, Australia and Brazil.
The new TIAA-CREF Global Agriculture's backers include Swedish pension fund AP2, British Columbia Investment Management Corporation and the Caisse de depot et placement du Quebec - one of the world's largest real estate managers.
Caisse's private equity executive vice-president Normand Provost said the timing was right to diversify into farm assets and enter an "emerging asset class exposed to global agricultural product demand".

View the original article here






















Jim Rogers

Warren Buffett

Nouriel Roubini