Monday, January 30, 2012

Jim Rogers says he would not buy facebook

Jim Rogers, CEO and chairman of Rogers Holdings, said he would not buy Facebook as a stock because it would be too expensive.

International Investor Jim Rogers Delivers Speech In Nanjing

“No, that kind of stock I don’t buy. They are usually very, very expensive. A lot of people like to buy expensive stocks like that, but I do not,” he told CNBC on Monday.

Reports suggest Facebook could file its papers for an initial public offering on Wednesday, one that could be the largest Internet offering ever, with the social media giant hoping to raise upwards of $10 billion. Such an IPO would value the company at more than $100 billion.

Rogers said the timing of an IPO this week would be a smart move by Facebook.

“It’s been demonstrated many, many times before that sellers are usually smarter than the buyers, and they usually know when the best time to sell is, and Facebook is doing it,” he said.

However, he said he would be interested in broader technology stocks, but is currently short the sector.

“I am interested in technology in some shape or form, but I can’t imagine buying any of them. They are a bit hot these days and they have been for two or three months, so that’s why I am short. I don’t buy high-priced stocks,” Rogers said.

Turning to the broader US economy, Rogers said the United States looks and feels better because the government is throwing money at it.

“There is an election in November 2012. Every time there is an election, the government pumps as much money as it can so it can to win the election. Of course things are going to look and feel better because Bernanke is printing money and Obama is spending money,” Rogers said.

He added that the US public are essentially “saps,” being fooled by a government eager to harness as many votes as possible in an election year.

“They want to fool all of us saps and get us through the elections, and then they’ll say we’ll worry about those saps next year,” he said.

Saturday, January 7, 2012

Jim Rogers, Ron Paul for President - Beacon Equity Research

Commodities investor, Jim Rogers, likes Congressman Ron Paul as the next president of the United States.

Though the 69-year-old Singapore resident said he doesn’t formally endorse candidates, Rogers told Australian Financial News Network (AFFN) he likes what he hears from Ron Paul, in as much as Paul at least addresses the issues of restoring fiscal and monetary responsibility in Washington.  “Gary Johnson and Ron Paul seem to understand the problems that are facing America, but I’m not in the business of endorsing political candidates,” said Rogers.

However, Rogers does endorse prudent, yet very painful, remedies to debt levels in the U.S., including real budget cuts, including draconian cuts in military spending, a Ron Paul theme throughout his campaign and throughout the more than two decades as a U.S. Representative from Texas.

The Austrian school of economics advocate, Rogers, also insists the Fed should go, another strong message from Paul, who was heavily influenced by Friedrich Hayek’s book, The Road to Serfdom, while Paul was a medical resident in the 1960s.

“The U.S. Government should abolish the Federal Reserve [System] that’s the first thing they should do.  And they are not going to do that, but they should do is let the interest rates find their normal rate their realistic level,” Rogers told The Street in a Dec. 7 interview.  “Right now, masses of people in America the people who have save and invest the people who have done what we would say as the right thing to do are being destroyed . . .”

And Rogers affinity for Ron Paul is not a recent one; he’s been an advocate for Paul since 2008, as evidenced by his interview with Financial Times of London soon after the election of Barrack Obama.

John Authers of FT started the interview with Rogers, “Now you correctly predicted a year ago that Ron Paul was not going to be elected president, partly because you want him to be.”  Smiling, Rogers interjected, “Right.”  Authers continued, “How worried are you now that we do know who the next president is going to be, are you worried about what you see from president-elect Obama so far do you think that could worsen the situation still more?”

Rogers replied, “Are you worried?  Now, I didn’t vote for McCain.  So I don’t think this is some kind of sour grapes or something.  But Mr. Obama has said his two economic planks are: he’s going to tax capital . . . and he’s going to protect American workers.”

Rogers continued, stressing that he was hopeful that cooler heads in Washington would prevail to stop Obama with his plan from protectionist policies and higher taxes, the precise elixir that torpedoed any chance of recovery during the Great Depression.

Fast forward to today’s AFFN interview, Rogers sounded much more resigned to the fate of a terrible crisis worsening in America.  What Rogers feared in 2008 has progressed into horror, as previous interviews with Rogers suggested that he is concerned that a Fed printing record amounts of money only exacerbates the U.S. economy with the addition of inflation, on top of high unemployment and still higher levels of unserviceable debt.

“We’ve lost one decade In the West . . . as you know, stock markets in America are below where they were 10 or 12 years ago, so we’ve already lost one decade in the economy and the markets,” Rogers explained.  “We’re going to lose at least one more decade, if not two or three.  The Japanese have already lost two decades so far.”

When asked about the prospects of a turnaround in the U.S. political system in time to prevent an economic collapse in the U.S., Rogers isn’t betting on it.

“I’m not confident at all, I have absolutely no confidence that anything’s going to be done,” he said.  Rogers predicts a much worse crisis than the 2008 near-total-collapse of the financial system, starting next year, or 2013.

Rogers has never venture to say what Washington’s response to profound civil unrest would be to U.S. economic Armageddon.  Was it a factor in his decision to uproot and move to Singapore?  One of the regular reporters from his typical media outlet rotation should ask Rogers about this very question.

And what possibly could change Jim Rogers’ mind about the U.S.?  Maybe a Ron Paul win in the Republican primaries and a win in Nov. 2012 would be a promising start to regain some confidence that all is not loss.  Sign-up for my 100% FREE Alerts

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Friday, January 6, 2012

Jim Rogers 'Not Too Optimistic' About Next 3 Years -

International investor Jim Rogers says he is short emerging markets and he isn't "too optimistic" about the immediate future.

“I’m not too optimistic about what’s going to be happening in the world in the next two or three years, and maybe even longer,” Rogers tells the Finance News Network.

“If the world economy doesn’t get better, you’re not going to make money in stocks,” says Rogers. “But then central banks will print more money and when they print money the thing to do is to own real assets.”

“I’m short stocks around the world, I’m short American technology stocks, I’m short emerging market stocks and I’m short European stocks,” Rogers told Finance News Network.

Global economic problems are going to continue to get worse until somebody solves the basic underlying problem of too much spending and too much debt, says Rogers, adding that the biggest risk is the Federal Reserve, which keeps printing money.

“But they’re printing all that money as a result of the debt,” says Rogers.

“The Central Bank keeps buying government debt and the Congress keeps spending government money.”

Failing to address this problem could easily lead to riots in the streets, even war, Rogers says. “It’s better to go ahead and take the pain now, while it would be terrible for two or three or four years, at least we’d get it behind us and start over,” he says.

According to the Washington Post, the Federal Reserve says the largest U.S. banks and financial companies should hold extra cash on their balance sheets to cushion themselves against financial crises, a proposal that will affect banks with over $50 billion in assets.

There are even stricter rules for companies with over $500 billion in assets such as JPMorgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc.

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Jim Rogers advocates a strong currency but Japan wants a weaker yen (CYB, FXY ... - NASDAQ

Legendary investor Jim Rogers once declared that a weak currency is evidence of a weak economy, which is evidence of a weak government. Japan is all for a strong currency -- for China.

In an article in The Wall Street Journal by Lingling Wei, Bob Davis and Takashi Nakamichi, it was reported that, "A wide-ranging currency agreement struck this weekend between China and Japan is expected to give the Chinese yuan a more powrful role in international trade, but substantial barriers remain before the yuan can emerge as a currency powerhouse."

As detailed in previous articles on , the yuan ( CYB , quote ) is becoming more accepted in international commerce.  This will eventually raise its value, due to basic supply and demand matters.

The Wall Street Journal article, "Tokyo signals support for yuan," noted that China and Japan will now trade in yuan/yen transactions, without having to convert to a U.S. dollar first.

In addition, Japan will now hold the yuan in its foreign reserves, which now consists mainly of the US dollar.

The stronger the yuan becomes, the better for Japanese exporters who sell in foreign currency but add up their book in yen ( FXY , quote ).

Global giants like Toyota Motors ( TM , quote ) and Canon Inc ( CAJ , quote ), are suffering from having to sell internationally under a more costly currency regime.

A stronger yuan also means Chinese exports are much less competitive against those from Japan as Japanese exports to China become that much more of a bargain for consumers.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.

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Jim Rogers not optimistic about anything but agriculture -

World markets may be riddled with uncertainty, but billionaire investor Jim Rogers anticipates gains in one sector for years to come.

"If I were buying anything I'd be buying agricultural commodities,? he says. ?Going forward we?re going to have huge shortages of everything ? including farmers ? I think ag will be a great place for the next 10-20 years," he says.

But don't take that to mean that agri stocks are a buy ? that's not what he means.

"Yale did a study recently showing that investors made 300% more by putting money in commodities themselves rather than commodity stocks ? that is unless you're a great stock picker."

In other words, he?d play his thesis with commodities futures or ETFs that track them.

And his thesis is based on massive research, part of which involves the performance of commodities in the 1970's. "At the time economies did nothing and yet commodities went through the roof,? he explains.

Jim Rogers co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in 1973. Although a native of Alabama, Rogers famously moved to Singapore due to his on-going belief that Asia is on the cusp of great prosperity.

"He's an investor who eats his own cooking," says Fast Money trader Stephen Weiss. In other words, he doesn't just talk the talk, Rogers walks the walk.

And largely Rogers is short because he is not optimistic about what?s going to happen in the world over the next two or three years.

?I?m short emerging markets, short American technology, short European stocks ? I don't see much reason to own equities,? he says.

In a nutshell, Rogers expects global economic problems to get much worse.

But whether that happens or not he still thinks a long position in commodities makes sense.  That?s the one area of the market where he sees potential.

Here's why.

If his thesis doesn't hold and the economies of the world improve, "I'll make money in commodities because (increased demand will generate) shortages, he says. But if the world doesn?t get better, then governments print money and the way to protect against that is to own real assets.?

In other words, he thinks commodities are a win/win.

And in case you're wondering about his thoughts on gold, Rogers says, "it would not surprise me to see gold go to $1200 ? but if it goes that low Id buy a lot more gold has been up 11 years in a row it deserves a substantial correction."

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Thursday, January 5, 2012

Can central banks beat the currency markets? (ICN, BZF, FXY) - NASDAQ

Legendary investor Jim Rogers once observed that a weak currency is the sign of a weak economy, which is the sign of a weak government. Governments from around the globe were very active in the currency markets in 2011, alternately seeking to weaken and strengthen their own currencies.

In an article by Erin McCarthy and Prabha Natarajan in The Wall Street Journal, the intervention by sovereign governments in 2011 was detailed.

Interestingly enough, the activities of the United States Federal Reserve Bank under Chairman Ben Bernanke which some -- particularly China -- regard as measures to weaken the U.S. dollar to increase exports were not cited.

Brazil spent over $50 billion to protect the real ( BZF , quote ).  Japan intervened three times to lower the value of the yen ( FXY , quote ).  India limited trading on the rupee ( ICN , quote ), which still fell greatly over the past 52 weeks.

As noted in The Wall Street Journal article by McCarthy and Natarajan, "In some cases, central banks defied the conventional wisdom that the market always wins."

While this is true, as the emminent economist John Maynard Keynes once noted, "The market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent." Central banks have failed in the past, as no less a figure than George Soros knows well.

Due to the eurozone crisis and more quantitative easing coming from the Federal Reserve, the new year is sure to feature very active buying and selling by central banks around the world to adjust the price levels of currencies.

Unsurprisingly, the nations with the most foreign reserves do best in currency interventions.  As such, China, with $3.5 trillion, and Japan, with $1.3 trillion, will be imposing forces in the 2012 foreign exchange markets in advancing the interests of the yuan and the yen.

About activities such as these in affairs among nations, Winston Churchill counseled that the strong do as they will, the weak suffer what they must.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.

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Jim Rogers on Agricultural Commodities, China, and Gold - Bull Source

Investor Jim Rogers of Rogers Holdings discusses his current market positions and expectations for 2012.

“Agriculture is going to be a great place for the next 10 to 20 years,” says Rogers. He expects huge agricultural shortages, including shortages of farmers, and is sticking with real commodities over commodity stocks. Rogers is shorting emerging markets, American technology, and European stocks.

The investor predicts China will pop the real estate bubble, but believes many parts of the country will boom no matter what happens to real estate in Shanghai and Beijing.

On gold, Rogers would not be surprised to see gold drop to $1,200 an ounce. He is not selling any gold or silver, but plans to buy more if there is a substantial correction.

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