Thursday, April 12, 2012

Jim Rogers: China Slowdown Means Opportunity -

While concerns about an economic slowdown in China took its toll on stocks Thursday, legendary investor Jim Rogers saw opportunity.

“I’m delighted to see it,” he said on “Fast Money.” “They need to do that. It’ll be good for China, it’ll be good for the world, and it will present opportunities for all of us. I hope that the Chinese market collapses so I can buy Chinese shares.”
Rogers said that China had been trying to slow its economy for years, as well as get its real estate bubble under control.

But it’s not just China that Rogers has his eye on.
“I certainly expect the world to have more of a slowdown in the next year or two, and that will be an opportunity for all of us,” he said.
While Rogers said he was long commodities, he also had a safety valve.
“Right now I’m short emerging market stocks as a potential hedge,” he said.
However, one emerging market play on the investor’s radar was Myanmar, formerly known as Burma.
“Fifty years ago, it was the richest country in Asia. Now, it’s the poorest because they closed off. But they’re just now opening up, just as China did 33, 34 years ago,” he said. “I find it wildly exciting.”

A ban on U.S. citizens from investing kept Rogers out of that market — for now.
“There’s nothing I can do right now,” he said.
Rogers also said he was shorting long-term U.S. government bonds, but conceded that his “timing has not been very good.”
Rogers also remained long gold and silver.
At $1,600, gold would be a buy, he said, adding that he would increase his position even more at $1,500 per ounce.
“If it got down to $1,200 or $1,300 I hope I’m smart enough to buy a lot more,” he said, noting that it was not a prediction.
“Gold is going to go much higher — and silver — over the next decade,” he said.

Jim Rogers & Peter Schiff Agree, US Treasury Crisis In 2013 (GLD, IAU,UUP ... - ETF Daily News (blog)

 Commodities guru Jim Rogers and Euro Pacific Capital CEO Peter Schiff have recently gone on the record that the next harrowing event in the ongoing global financial crisis will most likely take place after the presidential election, with the crisis in Europe spreading to Japan and the U.S. Treasury market sometime in 2013.

In recent weeks, the 69-year-old Rogers has said politics and the natural downside of the ‘business cycle’ will determine the timing of the next big drop in most financial assets.  “This is an election year in the United States, as you well know, and there are something like 40 to 45 elections over the next 12 months, including France, U.S., Germany,” Rogers told Opalesque Radio
. “So we have a lot of elections, a lot of politicians who want to be re-elected. So there’s going to be a lot of good news.

"Nationalism will emerge. Healthier countries will not see fit to spend their hard earned money to bail out their less responsible neighbors." Rogers added, however, historical data show that the ebb and flow of business activity suggest to him that the rebound from the crushing lows of corporate profits, stock prices and GDP during the 2008-9 economic and financial collapse has run their course.
As negligible as the rebound of the economy has been, with GDP still not back to the peak of $13.1 trillion for 2008, the time has come for the next leg down, according to him.

“The overall situation is getting much worse because the debt is going through the roof for all of us,” he continued. “You should be worried about 2013, 2014, but overall, 2012 won’t look so bad.

“In America, we’ve had an economic slowdown, or recession, every 4 to 6 years since the beginning of the Republic. So you can do the addition, by 2013 or 2014 we’re going to have another . . . we’re overdue for another recession. And if it comes, the markets are anticipating that . . .”

Within the context of the so-called two-year ‘recovery’ that still has yielded less U.S. GDP for 2011 than was achieved for 2008, along with higher overall debt at the federal level, the downside to the U.S. dollar, and by implication a U.S. Treasuries sell off, could be severe, Rogers has said in previous interviews. He still holds to that thesis. “There’s going to be more currency turmoil in the next year or two. . . as these imbalances are sorted out,” he concluded. Though Rogers didn’t mention his short position of U.S. Treasuries during the Opalesque
interview, he did announce earlier in the year that he has taken a short position on U.S. Treasuries debt, citing limitations to the upside in prices (lower rates) while the Fed maintains its dominate position as the ‘buyer of last resort’, and due to waning demand, to outright decreased holdings, from foreign buyers.
Echoing Rogers’ outlook of the U.S. Treasury market is Peter Schiff. In a telephone interview with financial publication Forbes
, he said ultra-loose monetary policy at the Federal Reserve only serves to exacerbate the snap back to the imbalances Rogers spoken about in the Opalesque Radio interview.
“The more you delay it, the bigger it will be,” Schiff told Forbes
, Tuesday, “so we need to raise interest rates during the recession to confront the inefficiencies.”
“We consume more than we produce and we borrow abroad, but we are never going to be able to pay them back,” Schiff continued, a conclusion that appears to have been drawn as well by the nations responsible for driving global growth for more than a decade, the BRICS.

Heads of state from the nations of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa signed an agreement in New Delhi, Thursday, making way for a credit facility as a means of extending credit between the five-nation block in their own currencies, thereby bypassing the U.S. dollar for international trade.

The fourth BRICS summit is the latest in a rapid trend by developing nations to disengage from the dollar/euro reserve currency protocol. In addition to the agreement, the five-nation block also called for reforms to the World Bank and International Monetary fund (IMF).

Since as early as 2000, Schiff has warned that the world’s producers of goods and raw materials will one day stop extending credit to the debtor nations as the debt levels become unserviceable. That means it’s inevitable that the U.S. dollar falls further and interest rates rise to reflect the added risk of holding U.S. Treasuries.

At that time, few in mainstream media (MSM) took Schiff seriously, while some scorned him, when he warned of a dollar collapse. But today, he has been partially vindicated. Gold has risen sharply against the two reserve currencies, the U.S. dollar and euros, since 2000.

However, contrary to what Schiff’s pundits now say, the worst has not passed; there’s much more currency debasing to come, including a U.S. Treasury market collapse.

“All of the people who were 100% wrong [back in ‘08] are saying that everything’s okay [now],” Schiff said. “I am telling them they didn’t solve the problem and are making it so much worse.”

According to Schiff, the U.S. Treasury market is set for a big fall in 2013, and he expects to be right once again.

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Jim Rogers Says He's Not So Optimistic About Gold, Silver -BusinessWeek

Investor Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, said he’s “not so optimistic” about gold and silver prices.

“I expect the price to decline and when that happens I will buy more,” Rogers said at a conference in Bucharest today.

Jim Rogers Bearish and Bullish on Gold, Silver -

Rogers is very bullish on the long term economic prospects of China and Asia. He says he believes that the housing bubble in China has come to a close. “There has been a bubble in the Chinese property market which is now over,” said Rogers. “The Chinese government has been trying to burst the bubble. I think the government is doing the right thing to bring down the price of property. If you do not pop bubbles, lots of people get badly hurt. The bigger the bubble gets, the worse it is for everyone.”

GAAR proposal disappointing, says Jim Rogers - Economic Times

Stating that bureacracy in India is the worst in the world, Jim Rogers, Chairman, Rogers Holdings told ET Now that he was disappointed with the General Anti-Avoidance Rules (GAAR) proposal announced by Indian Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee in the Union Budget 2012-13. Rogers believes that India would develop faster if the markets are less regulated.

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Jim Rogers 'I Will Buy More' Gold - Still Long Term Bullish - SeekingAlpha

The GoldCore trading desk was unusually busy yesterday with a large percentage of clients selling their bullion holdings including some quite large sell orders. It could be indicative of a bottom as there has been capitulation by weak hands concerned about the recent price fall.

Despite a recent decrease in physical demand both from Asia and in western markets, the fundamentals driving the market have not changed and will be supportive. Demand has abated after the record levels of demand seen at the height of the Greek debt crisis in November and December.

However, this demand will likely return in the coming months when Spain, Italy and potentially the U.K., Japan and U.S. all experience similar debt crises.

Gold, Silver, S&P, DJIA, US 10 Year - 1 Year

Risk adverse investors and the prudent should maintain a "buy and hold" strategy and should continue to accumulate on the dip.

Jim Rogers "I Will Buy More" Gold - Still Long Term Bullish

The smart money continues to accumulate gold and silver on the dip.

Investor Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, said he remains bullish on gold and silver in the long term and he "will buy more" on price weakness.

Rogers predicted a global commodities rally and the gold and silver bull markets in 1999. He also predicted much of what has transpired in financial markets in recent months and years and has consistently warned about the risks posed to the U.S. dollar and other fiat currencies.

In the short term he is not so optimistic about gold and silver prices. "I expect the price to decline and when that happens I will buy more," Rogers said at a conference in Bucharest yesterday.

He recently said that he would buy gold at $1,600/oz and would increase position by even more at $1,500/oz - reiterating that gold is going much higher in the coming decade.

Rogers did not elaborate, nor was he asked, how much higher, but he said in November 2011 that gold "will easily go to $2,000 but it will reach $2,400 over the course of the bull run, which has years to run."

Jim Rogers

Warren Buffett

Nouriel Roubini