Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Jim Rogers: Play Markets By Owning Real Assets - CNBC.com

Investors shouldn’t pay “much attention” to what governments are doing, well-known investor Jim Rogers, CEO and Chairman of Rogers Holdings, told CNBC Friday.

“If you listen to governments, then you are not going to make a lot of money. Governments lie, distort and make mistakes,” he said.
His comments came after months when the markets have followed European politicians’ efforts to solve the euro zone debt crisis.
Improving US economic data has led some to argue that the US will not be too badly affected by the situation in Europe, although Rogers disagrees.
“Europe as a whole is the largest economy in the world. If Europe has problems, we in the US are going to feel those problems,” he said.

The situation in Greece has continued to affect markets across the world, with the possibility of an agreement on the government’s bond swap with its private sector creditors sending European markets higher on Friday.
Let Greece go bankrupt and other people who are bankrupt go bankrupt, and then they can reorganize their assets and start over,” Rogers said.
“It may work now but it’s going to come back. I hope we can paper it over this time.”
Investors should focus on “real assets” like commodities to deal with continuing worries of another downturn, he added.
“My way of playing this is to own real assets like commodities,” he said “You now have the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the Federal Reserve printing money. The way to protect yourself at a time like this is to own assets.”

Rogers added that he thinks silver looks more attractive than gold at the moment because of the sustained rise in the gold price.
He owns currencies including the euro and the dollar – although not sterling.
“Recent rallies in the Dow, supported by better US economic data, have brought the index to near 13,000. If it crosses 13,000 on Friday, this will be the first time since May 2008.
Rogers, who doesn’t own US stocks, warned that next year is likely to be more painful than 2012.
“In 2012, we have elections and many governments pumping money into the economy, spending and printing money. It’s 2013-14 we have to worry about,” he said.

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Jim Rogers: Throughout history when you have people debasing currencythe way ... - Gold made simple News

Jim Rogers appeared on Times Now
today to talk about how to protect your wealth from currency debasement/destruction.
Whilst Jim’s themes will be well know to most we really wanted to put this clip up to show just how the global the conversation about currency destruction really is.

Rogers Compares Myanmar Reforms to China Opening - Bloomberg

Investor Jim Rogers, the chairman of Rogers Holdings who predicted a global commodities rally in 1999, said that Myanmar may be embracing reform as China did decades earlier and he’s optimistic about the nation’s prospects.

“If I could put all of my money into Myanmar, I would,” Rogers said at a conference in Singapore today. “Myanmar is in the same place China was in early 1979, when Deng Xiaoping said we have to do something new. Myanmar is now opening up.”

Rogers’s comments highlight increased investor interest in the economy that may be Asia’s “next economic frontier,” according to the International Monetary Fund. The IMF is pushing for an overhaul of Myanmar’s finances as President Thein Sein releases dissidents and engages with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi in moves that have prompted the U.S. and Europe to reassess sanctions against the former military dictatorship.

“It’s right between China and India, 60 million people, massive natural resources, agriculture,” Rogers said at the gathering organized by New York-based INTL FCStone Inc. “You could feed much of Asia, they have metals, they have energy, they have everything.”

China’s Deng introduced capitalist reforms in the late 1970s, lifting more than 200 million people out of poverty and transforming the nation into the world’s second-largest economy and its biggest consumer of steel, copper and coal.

“In 1962 Myanmar was the single richest country in Asia,” said Rogers, referring to the year that marked the start of military rule. “Now it’s the poorest because it’s been so badly managed in the past 50 years. But they are changing that now.”

Myanmar may grow 5.5 percent in 2011-2012 and 6 percent in 2012-2013 on commodity exports and higher investment, the IMF said last month. The country “could become the next economic frontier in Asia” if it takes advantage of its natural resources, young labor force and proximity to China and India, according to Meral Karasulu, who led an IMF mission to the country in January.

Rice exports from Myanmar, formerly the world’s largest shipper, may more than double to 1.5 million metric tons this year, the Myanmar Rice Industry Association forecast last month. Sales totaled 700,000 tons in 2011.

China and India share more than 3,600 kilometers (2,200 miles) of border with Myanmar, whose 64 million people earn an average of just $2.25 per day, according to IMF estimates. Both nations have sought increased access to the nation’s reserves of natural gas.

To contact the reporter on this story: Glenys Sim in Singapore at gsim4@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Poole at jpoole4@bloomberg.net


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Jim Rogers: Attack on Jim Rogers: Attack on Iran, Pure “Madness” — Likes Gold ... - ETF Daily News

Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul:  Jim Rogers fears an attack on Iran will happen, calling a military confrontation with the world’s fifth-largest oil producer, “madness.”  The 69-year-old chairman of Rogers Holdings also favors commodities over paper assets as investment for the remainder of the decade, especially gold (NYSEArca:GLD) during tensions in the Middle East.  


“It is pretty clear that many people in Washington DC and in America who want to do something with Iran,” Rogers told India-based Economic Times.  “There seem to be many people in Israel who want to do something with Iran,” adding, “I find it madness if they would even think about something like that because if they do, it is going to cause all sorts of havoc in the world and retaliation, but people do foolish things all the time.”  In the case of an all-out war with Iran, Rogers believes many markets will initially suffer from the geopolitical shock and turmoil in the Middle East, except, maybe, gold.


“If somebody starts bombing Iran, everything in the world is probably going to go down for a while except maybe gold,” he said.


But when asked specifically about the most obvious commodity standing to benefit from a war with Iran, oil, Rogers didn’t explicitly offer a comment on the potential price of crude (NYSEArca:USO) following an attack on Iran—possibly to play down the possibility of drawing criticism of profiteering from war.


“I am not investing as it was going to happen other than the fact that I do own oil and I own commodities, but I hope it does not happen, but it looks like it will,” stated Rogers.


War or not, Rogers likes commodities no matter where world GDP is headed. Strong growth brings strong demand for raw materials; weak growth elicits central bank intervention via currency debasement.  It’s a head-you-win-tails-you-win trade, according to him.


“If the world economy gets better, the shortages of nearly all commodities are developing and I am going to make money in the commodities,” Rogers  explains. “If the world economy does not get better, they are going to print a lot more money. The place to be is in real assets, including base metals.”


As in previous interviews with various media outlets, Rogers, again, specifically mentions the same three commodities, silver, rice and natural gas as promising vehicles for investment capital, though, through advice from his lawyers, he states that he doesn’t formally “recommend” any one or group of commodities in particular. [Related: iShares Silver Trust (NYSEArca:SLV), U.S. Natural Gas Fund (NYSEArca:UNG)]


Narrowing Rogers’ apparent penchant for silver, in July 2011, Rogers told CNBC (BER article), “Silver is going to go much, much higher—much higher, over the next decade.”


In early November, Economic Times quoted Rogers (BER article), “I would prefer silver because it is still depressed on a historic basis. Silver is 30 percent below its all-time high.” [Related: ProShares Ultra Silver (NYSEarca:AGQ)]


Two weeks later, Rogers told CNBC (BER article), “Throughout history, when things have gone wrong, they print money…when they print money, you should own silver, you should own rice, you should own real assets.” Emphasis added.


As far as timing of a meaningful purchase of gold, of recent past, Rogers wasn’t buying gold at the $1,600 and $1,700 level, preferring to wait for the possibility of a further correction before jumping back into the bullion market.


He, like Gloom Boom Doom Report publisher Marc Faber and FX Concepts’ Founder John Taylor, is looking for a intermediate capitulation in the gold market before buying in quantity.  All three men expect new highs in gold in the future.


However, Rogers appears less confident that a further correction in the gold market is in the offing given the escalating geopolitical events of the past few weeks between the US and Iran.  Since the sell-off in September, Rogers indicated that he was not buying, but today, he’s a nibbler.


“I bought some gold on Monday, a little bit,” he said.  “Not very much, but if gold goes down a lot, I would buy. I hope I am smart enough to buy a lot  more gold. Gold is going to go much higher over the course of this decade.”


And, in step with both the thinking of Faber and Taylor, Rogers believes the gold market has much more room to run before it’s time to consider selling the precious metal. “Do not sell your gold, not yet.”


 Buy Gold & Silver For The Long Haul, says Jim Rogers (GLD, IAU, SLV, UUP, VGK, FXE)Jim Rogers: I’m Being Forced To Buy More Real Assets Like Gold and Silver (GLD, SLV, AGQ, ZSL, GDX, IAU)Here’s How Iran Could Launch Silver To $100 (SLV, GLD, AGQ, ZSL, SIVR)Iran Could Make Silver Bugs Filthy Rich (SLV, PSLV, AGQ, GLD, ZSL, SLW)Investors: Greece and The Gold & Silver ETF Hedge (GLD, SLV, AGQ, UGL, IAU)NYSE:AGQ, NYSE:GLD, SLV, UNG, USO



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Monday, February 27, 2012

Jim Rogers hates stocks, loves currency, and China explains why - NASDAQ

It may seem odd that legendary investor Jim Rogers has been as bullish on Euros and dollars as he is bearish on European and American stocks. But the recent rise of the Euro and the fall of the yuan play to the advantage of China.


About 40% of the gross domestic product of China is geared towards exports to Europe and the United States.  A falling yuan helps China in several ways.


First, it increases the purchasing power of buyers in the United States and Europe.  This allows them to continue to buy goods made in China.  In general, a stronger US dollar and Euro does much for economic growth in these nations.  As Rogers so wisely commented, "A weak currency is a sign of a weak economy, which is a sign of a weak government."


Second, Chinese goods are sold at a discount.   If the Euro and the dollar rise while the yuan decreases, Chinese-made merchandise becomes that much more competitive in international trade.


With $3.2 trillion in foreign reserves, there is much China can do to influence economic policy and development in both the United States and Europe. The vectoring of the PowerShares US Dollar ( UUP , quote ), the Currency Shares Euro Trust, ( FXE , quote ) and the Wisdom Tree Dreyfus Chinese Yuan ( CYB , quote ) reflect this. However, money is not the only tool in China's kit.


China has already backed off from purchases of bonds.  However, it has also indicated an interest in European and American infrastructure projects.  This allows for China to support the United States and Europe with solid investments without holding sovereign debt.  Strengthening the currency for both accomplishes the same goal for China: keep the United States and Europe out of recession so its own economy continues to expand.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.


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Jim Rogers Picks Obama to Win Election but Prefers Ron Paul - AdvisorOne

Investor Jim Rodgers (Photo: AP)Famed international investor Jim Rogers says that if he were a betting man, he’d pick Barack Obama to win the 2012 presidential election. Only the multimillionaire Quantum Fund founder isn’t a betting man, so it looks like his vote this year will be going to libertarian Ron Paul.

Leading presidential hopefuls Obama, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum “don’t have a clue what’s going on”, Rogers (left) told Reuters in a televised interview on Thursday. “If I were a betting man, I would bet that Obama would win. He is a sitting president, and it’s hard to defeat a sitting president.”

Obama is printing and spending a lot of money to make sure the U.S. economy looks good this year, Rogers said, but he added that “the only one that understands” is Ron Paul, the Texas congressman who ran for president on the Libertarian ticket in 1988 and went on to espouse his libertarian platform as a Republican candidate in 2008 as well as 2012.

The Jim Rogers Blog quoted Rogers as supporting Paul as early as last August. “A pox on both their houses, the Democrats and Republicans,” Rogers said. “In this election if Ron Paul gets anywhere close to a nomination, I will certainly support him.”

The Jim Rogers Channel on YouTube shows that if he could see anybody for president, dead or alive, Rogers would pick laissez-faire economics philosopher Adam Smith, who died in 1790.

Rogers, who made a name for himself as co-founder of the Quantum Fund with billionaire investor George Soros, is now chairman of Rogers Holdings and currently overseeing a number of commodities funds.

“Throughout history when you have people printing money and debasing currency, the way to protect yourself and to make money is to own real assets,” Rogers recently said in Economic Times. “Silver, rice, natural gas and those are not specific recommendations. I am just saying those are natural resources.”

At the same time, American-born Rogers, who is now based in Singapore, doesn’t own any U.S. equities, although he does own U.S. dollars. “At the moment, there is nothing that’s going to make me sell my U.S. dollars.  What could happen, a war? That would make it go up for awhile, wrongly, but there’s nothing that would make me sell my U.S. dollars right now,” he said.

As for U.S. Treasuries, Rogers told Reuters he is neither long nor short the asset class.

“I don’t own Treasuries, and I’m not short Treasuries. I’m waiting to short. I should have been long all this time,” Rogers said. He added that close look at the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet shows that a third round of quantitative easing to stimulate the economy is already quietly taking place.

“We already have QE3,” he said. “You can see that unadjusted M2 is going through the roof…. They don’t call it that, but it’s there. That won’t be good for the dollar down the road”


View the original article here

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Investor Rogers Compares Myanmar Reforms to China's Opening - BusinessWeek

February 22, 2012, 4:39 AM EST By Glenys Sim

(Adds comment from Soros in eighth paragraph.)

Feb. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Investor Jim Rogers, the chairman of Rogers Holdings who predicted a global commodities rally in 1999, said Myanmar is embracing reform as China did decades earlier and he’s optimistic about the resource-rich nation’s prospects.

“If I could put all of my money into Myanmar, I would,” Rogers said at a conference in Singapore today. “Myanmar is in the same place China was in early 1979, when Deng Xiaoping said we have to do something new. Myanmar is now opening up.”

Rogers’s comments highlight increased investor interest in the economy that may be Asia’s “next economic frontier,” according to the International Monetary Fund. The IMF is pushing for an overhaul of Myanmar’s finances as President Thein Sein releases dissidents and engages with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi in moves that have prompted the U.S. and Europe to reassess sanctions against the former military dictatorship.

“It’s right between China and India, 60 million people, massive natural resources, agriculture,” Singapore-based Rogers said at the gathering organized by New York-based INTL FCStone Inc. “You could feed much of Asia, they have metals, they have energy, they have everything.”

China’s Deng introduced capitalist reforms in the late 1970s, lifting more than 200 million people out of poverty and transforming the nation into the world’s second-largest economy and its biggest consumer of steel, copper and coal.

‘Richest Country’

“In 1962 Myanmar was the single richest country in Asia,” said Rogers, referring to the year that marked the start of military rule. “Now it’s the poorest because it’s been so badly managed in the past 50 years. But they are changing that now.”

Myanmar may grow 5.5 percent in 2011-2012 and 6 percent in 2012-2013 on commodity exports and higher investment, the IMF said last month. The country “could become the next economic frontier in Asia” if it takes advantage of its natural resources and proximity to China and India, according to Meral Karasulu, who led an IMF mission to the country in January.

George Soros, the billionaire investor, said last month that he’d visited Myanmar recently and the president and his ministers “genuinely want an opening.”

Rice exports from Myanmar, formerly the world’s largest shipper, may more than double to 1.5 million metric tons this year, the Myanmar Rice Industry Association forecast last month. Sales totaled 700,000 tons in 2011.

China and India share more than 3,600 kilometers (2,200 miles) of border with Myanmar, whose 64 million people earn an average of just $2.25 per day, according to IMF estimates. Both nations have sought increased access to the nation’s reserves of natural gas.

--With assistance from Daniel Ten Kate in Bangkok. Editors: Jake Lloyd-Smith, James Poole

To contact the reporter on this story: Glenys Sim in Singapore at gsim4@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Poole at jpoole4@bloomberg.net


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Jim Rogers 'talking his book', but his ETF no chart topper - NASDAQ

Legendary investor Jim Rogers is legendarily short on equities and long on commodities, and the Rogers International Commodity Index is the embodiment of his ideas. Unfortunately, the Rogers International Agriculture Commodity ETF ( RJA , quote ) doesn't quite live up to its billing.


The Index consists of 20 agriculture investments, with the major holdings being wheat ( JJG , quote ), corn ( CORN , quote ) and cotton ( BAL , quote ). These components are pretty stable, and their prices are currently within 1% of where they were a year ago.


Not so RJA. It's down over 21% for the last year, though it is up slightly since the beginning of 2012. Contrast this with the major exchange traded fund for agriculture, PowerShares Agriculture ( DBA , quote ), which is down only 16% over the last year.


When interviewed about the fund by Bloomberg Television in Singapore, Rogers said that a correction in commodities was to be expected.  Hopefully that is now over, and the RJA will be on the way back up in 2012.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.


View the original article here

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Jim Rogers Out Of Step With KWN Gold Bugs (GLD, IAU, SGOL, GDXJ, AGOL) - ETF Daily News (blog)

Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul:  Speaking with Investment Week, Jim Rogers of Rogers Holdings said he doesn’t expect gold to surpass $2,000 in 2012, putting him on the other side of the boat of some well-known analysts.


“I do not think it will go to $2,000 this year, no,” said the 69-year-old American expatriate living in Singapore.  “I own it and I am not planning on selling it. It will go over $2,000 one day, but not this year.”  No elaboration on Rogers’ latest take on gold was contained in the Investment Week article of Feb. 10.


In sharp contrast to Rogers’ sentiments about the yellow metal, almost every regular guest on King World News, save Marc Faber, has come out with some bullish expectations for the gold price in 2012.  One in particular, Matterhorn Asset Management Founder Egon von Greyerz, told Eric King this week that he expects gold to reach $5,000 per ounce within 24 months, with a reasonable assumption gleaned from his forecast that he expects gold to clear $2,000 by the end of this year.  Otherwise, is von Greyerz suggesting a triple in price for gold during 2013, alone?


Rogers, who said late last year, that he would “get excited” if gold dropped to $1,200 and is hopeful that he will be smart enough to buy the yellow metal at that bargain price.


Today, the gold trades at $1,720, 16 percent from the $2,000 mark.


With Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke poising markets for a high probability of formal QE3 announcement sometime this year in his effort to combat further deflationary forces in asset markets, from where will this gold-negative event come that would exact a steep drop in the gold price?


Sharing Rogers’ concern for Europe, author of Red Alert, Stephen Leeb, said a Greek default in the Eurozone could trigger a sell off in gold, not unlike the 2008 sell off following the collapse of Lehman, though Leeb proffered the odds of Europe losing the battle with the Greek protesters as somewhat small, less than 20 percent.


“If something goes awry in Europe, that could easily lead to a very sharp and very big sell off in gold, just as was the case in 2008 when the world starting coming apart,” Leeb explained in an interview with KWN.  “People sold gold because they needed liquidity and gold went done sharply and then it went zoom, like a rocket ship on the way back.  That could happen today”


In October 2008, gold dropped to $680 per ounce during the panic following the fall of Lehman.  Four months later, in late February 2009, gold settled briefly above $1,000 again.



Leeb said another sell off in gold precipitated by a Greek tragedy would offer another stellar opportunity for investors to accumulate more of the precious metal, a suggestion echoed by Thailand’s Gloom Boom Doom publisher Marc Faber.


Though Rogers told Investment Weekly that he’s encouraged by the developments between Greece and the Troika, he believes that after Greece the restructuring and ‘austerity’ measures needed at the rest of Europe’s PIIGS won’t progress well.


“Europe needs to stop bailing out Greece,” Rogers said.  “The real issue is are they going to change their ways in future? If they do that, the situation will improve. Just sorting out Greece is not enough, if they were to address the problems in other countries then that would be exciting. But I do not think they will.”


In addition to the implied relative dollar strength against the euro in a Rogers scenario, he thinks the U.S. will muddle through 2012 without much incident.  But after 2012, the presidential election is over, and the sovereign debt problems in Europe will have moved to the United States, according to Rogers.


In the U.S., “things look better, but whether it is actually real or not is the question. I am worried about the U.S., especially in 2013 and 2014,” Rogers said, adding that, at some point the U.S. Treasury market “bubble” will pop.


“In the U.S., they are going to continue printing money and sending out good news to win votes this year,” Rogers said.


If January’s BLS jobs report serves as a prelude to a trend of outlandish propaganda about the state of the U.S. economy through to Election Day, Rogers’ case for a relatively firm dollar could very well extend into early 2013.  Then, the big reset to begin the ‘second half’ of an Obama presidency.  Gold could be the only fungible asset left standing.



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Monday, February 13, 2012

Keynes, Templeton and Rogers were all right about this market - NASDAQ

John Maynard Keynes is credited with the line, "the market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can remain solvent." He's just the oldest of three thinkers -- Keynes, John Templeton, and Jim Rogers -- whose advice should be heeded in today's markets.

Rogers is the youngest of the group, and the most bearish. He has warned that there is a " 100% chance " of another financial crisis, one that will be much worse than 2008.

Since March 2009, the stock market has been on a liquidity-induced rally, one that has nearly doubled the Standard & Poors 500 since its 683.38 low. These advances have come despite declining growth in the United States, China, India, Brazil and Europe.  Sovereign debt ratings downgrades and warnings litter the globe, and a wide variety of investment indexes dropped in 2011.

What does all this mean? That there are now great buys in the stock market, particularly in emerging nations.

To explain that, we must look to Sir John Templeton, the middle man of our trio and the legendary investor who founded the Templeton mutual fund family. Templeton achieved his first fortune by purchasing 100 shares of every company in the stock market for less than a dollar per share in 1939. Within four years, he made profits well into the triple figures.

Templeton advised investors to "see the investment world as an ocean and buy where you get the most value for your money." He believed in diverse investments, and that "bull markets are born in pessimism."

As the ups and downs of 2012 continue, keep your eyes on the emerging markets, and be ready to invest when the opportunities appear.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.


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Jim Rogers or Jim Chanos: which billionaire investor is right about China? - NASDAQ

Jim Rogers says that China will ease itself through rough economic times, much like it did in 2008. Jim Chanos sees the entire Chinese banking system as ready to collapse as it is built "on quicksand."  Who's right?

If the banking system goes down, China goes with it.  But Jim Rogers is no cock-eyed optimist, and he has long warned of a " hard landing " for countries such as the United States and Greece.

While growth in China is down, it was still 8.9% for the fourth quarter of 2011.  The IMF predicts  it will fall to 8.25% in 2012, but that's hardly a recession.  The country also has over trillions in foreign reserves and the highest savings rate in the world. Numbers like those cover up a lot of mistakes.

In disputes like these, it is best to turn to the economic principle of revealed preference.  For China, it is a basic question: are foreign firms still expanding in the country?

As pointed out in many articles on www.emergingmoney.com , hotel chains, auto makers, and retailers are all launching major development programs in China. The yuan is also being accepted more widely around the world, which not only demonstrates China's economic might, but will also give Beijing more latitude to deal with any financial crises.

Advantage: Rogers, at least for now.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.


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Sunday, February 12, 2012

Rogers wary of US equities despite roaring markets - Investment Week

The Nasdaq reached an 11-year high last week as investors piled into US equities, but Jim Rogers has cautioned on the prospects for the asset class.

In recent months, reported improvements in the US economy have dominated headlines, and stock markets have rallied accordingly. Global fund managers in particular have been increasing their allocation to US equities on better than expected macro data

According to Rogers, the US could see an improvement last throughout 2012, but would then be due a correction. He stressed he is particularly concerned about the next two years.

"Things look better, but whether it is actually real or not is the question. I am worried about the US, especially in 2013 and 2014," he said.

He warned the recent optimism could be prompted by the government's attempt to boost the economy pre-election.

"In the US, they are going to continue printing money and sending out good news to win votes this year," he added.

Rogers recently told Investment Week he plans to short US treasuries as he sees a bubble forming in the asset class.

"US T-bills are at historic lows. To lend money to the most indebted nation in the world is incomprehensible to me. This is a bubble," he said.

Rogers said he is encouraged by progress made regarding Greece's debt restructuring programme, but reiterated his view some European countries need to accept major losses before any real resolution to the crisis can be found.

"Europe needs to stop bailing out Greece. The real issue is are they going to change their ways in future? If they do that, the situation will improve. Just sorting out Greece is not enough, if they were to address the problems in other countries then that would be exciting. But I do not think they will," he said.

Rogers added he expects European countries will continue to overspend, and warned accepting huge losses is the only answer.

However, the chairman of Rogers Holdings remains long the euro, and ultimately does not expect the single currency to break up.

A well-known commodities bull, Rogers holds gold and has warned of a correction in the past. However, he told Investment Week he does not expect the metal to pass the $2,000 per ounce mark as some commodities analysts have forecast this week.

"I do not think it will go to $2,000 this year, no. I own it and I am not planning on selling it. It will go over $2,000 one day, but not this year," he added.


View the original article here

Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Jim Rogers: No One Leaves the Euro Zone This Year - CNBC.com

No country will exit the euro zone this year but a solution to the debt crisis remains elusive, Jim Rogers, CEO and Chairman at Rogers Holdings, told CNBC Monday.

Jim RogersMIKE CLARKE | AFP | Getty Images

"I don't think we'll see anybody will leave the euro zone in 2012, there are 40 elections in 2012 there will be more problems this year, governments everywhere will do their best to make sure we get through elections.

"Maybe in 2013 you should panic and certainly by 2014 you should be panicked but 2012 will be better," said Rogers, a widely followed investor who has published several books on investing, co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros, and more recently is the creator of the Rogers Global Resources Equity Index.

Greece is hoping to gain its second bailout and reports on Monday suggest a private sector involvement deal in swapping shorter-dated debt with longer maturity bonds at a loss to creditors could be close after negotiations stalled last week over how big a haircut would be taken by the private sector.

Rogers added that he was short European stocks and wanted to hear direct talk from European policymakers.

"I would love for them to say that OK it's a disaster and for banks and shareholders to say they'll take big losses. Everything would collapse and I would buy all the euros I could and all the stocks I could, but I don't think that is going to happen," Rogers added.

The European Union holds a summit later on Monday to discuss the debt crisis further but Rogers dismissed this latest in a long line of summits as a "charade".

"We've been having European summits every few weeks for the past two years, it's all a charade. They are just trying to get through the French elections and I am not paying too much attention to it until they start to take real action," he said.


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JIM ROGERS: Watch Out For 2013 - Business Insider


Experts are increasingly pointing to 2013--not 2012--as the new year of doom. Peter Orszag warned of a gathering storm of expiring tax cuts, mandatory spending cuts, and another debt ceiling fight headed for the U.S.


Meanwhile, WPP chief Martin Sorrell also said the U.S. should watch for 2013.


Jim Rogers is another big name in the 2013-is-the-end-of-the-world camp.


In an interview with the Economic Times, Rogers said the U.S. economy is only being "juiced up" before the elections and the the armageddon in Europe has just been postponed:


"Of course you have the American government spending staggering amounts of money right now, printing a lot of money and getting ready for the election. It happens every four years in America. They do their best to get the economy juiced up so they can win the election.


…They [ECB] have postponed Armageddon, I am glad you put it that way. We discussed before here that 2013 and 2014 are what I am most worried about because this year everybody is trying to just get through the next election. There are 40 elections in 2012. Everybody is going to do their best to get us through the election. Watch out for 2013."


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Rogers is bearish on America, but Buffett runs with the bulls (AXP, KFT, PG) - NASDAQ

Time Magazine recently dubbed Warren Buffett " The Optimist, " telling the story of why he's "bullish on America." Meanwhile, Jim Rogers is shorting U.S. stocks. How can two of the world's most successful investors take such different perspectives?

As Time's Rana Foroohar writes, Buffett "believes in making money. He believes in fairness. He believes in the ability of government to make people's lives better. But most of all, he believes in luck." The Sage of Omaha looks back at his own good fortune and looks for investments that lead to a brighter future.

This is nothing new: in the fall of 2008, the nadir of the Great Recession, Buffett wrote a  New York Times op-ed telling the world to " Buy American ."  He outlined a simple strategy: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful."

With the Dow finally nearing pre-recession levels, Buffett's investments are not only looking prescient, but very profitable.

Meanwhile, as detailed in previous articles  on www.emergingmoney.com , equally legendary investor Jim Rogers is shorting U.S. stocks. Rogers has stated in interviews that there is a "100% chance" that there will be another financial crisis like that of 2008.  According to Rogers, it will be worse and will hit the United States very hard.

What reconciles the two views? Can both be right?

Perhaps. Time points out that Buffett's holdings, "aren't bets on America so much as they are bets of the ability of American companies to continue exporting capitalism around the world." He puts his money in companies like American Express ( AXP , quote ), Kraft ( KFT , quote ) and Procter & Gamble ( PG , quote ) -- global franchises that get an increasing amount of their business from emerging markets.

Both Buffett and Rogers are bullish on the global market -- and investing in US multi-nationals gives Buffett the best of all worlds.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc.


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Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Farrell: Don't Follow Jim Rogers, Bet With Chanos & Short China - Barron's (blog)

Commodities investor Jim Rogers famously bet against Fannie Mae, banks and home builders just before the 2008 financial crisis. He’s authored a book titled “Bull in China, Investing Profitably in the World’s Greatest Market.” And, notes MarketWatch’s Paul Farrell, he moved to Asia.

“But should you follow his lead? Forget America? Invest in China, the ‘World’s Greatest Market?” he asks in today’s column. His response: No way. In fact, Farrell advises shorting China. He writes:

“China’s hot economy will crash and burn in the coming years. It is the ‘World’s Greatest Market’ today … They will self-destruct. Why? Simple math, psychology, history: Bubbles always pop.”

While China’s economy looks fabulous today, gambling with Rogers “is a bad bet” due to the increased inter-connected nature of the global economy, the column notes. Also, the piece refers to views by financial historian Niall Ferguson, who warns that China is “gloating on our misfortunes.” He cautions that China’s “headed for a collapse of its own” as a raft of political, social and economic pressures figure to undermine the country’s growth.

A better strategy in such a scenario is the path charted by Jim Chanos, says Farrell. The hedge fund manager has been warning investors to ignore the China “hype,” telling BusinessWeek that investors should short China and its bubble is collapsing. Chanos believes the country has too heavy of a government footprint in economic matters and practices a form of crony capitalism, among other things. He also remains critical of China for its massive municipal debt, overbuilding of luxury condos and poor accounting practices.

For traders, such views would seem a bit problematic at the moment: The iShares FTSE China 25 ETF (FXI), the most popular fund of its kind, was most recently trading higher Tuesday. In the past month, it’s up 10% and over the past five years its shares have gained slightly more than 3% on an average annualized basis. At the same time, the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) has risen shy of 5% in the past 30 sessions and less than 0.5% over the last five years.


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Jim Rogers: Lazy bank & ratings clique must take a hit - RT


European markets have not let the massive ratings downgrade cast a shadow over trading on Monday, with only a slight fall.


­The announcement of the ratings giant Standard & Poor's that it slashed the scores of nine EU nations, including the Triple-A scores of France and Austria, came after Europe's markets closed on Friday.


European leaders have been quick to criticize credit ratings agencies for having a negative impact on the 17-nation monetary union at the very time it is attempting to avert a crisis.


It has been a tense weekend for financiers, but financial commentator and co-founder of Quantum Hedge Fund Jim Rogers explained to RT why the markets are calm on Monday. It is simply because the US-based agencies are becoming obsolete.


“It means that you should not bother to pay any attention to the rating agencies. Everything they have done in the past 15 or 20 years has been wrong,” he raged. “I stopped bothering about them long ago. Everybody knows that France is no longer Triple-A, everybody knows that Italy is no longer as highly-rated as it used to be. The market knows all about this. This is not news. I know you have to report something, but this is not news to people in the market.” 


Meanwhile another ratings agency, Moody's, says on Monday it is keeping France's AAA credit rating for now, despite rival S&P's downgrade. This forced S&P to promise it would update its position on France later this quarter.


Responding to the major European credit rating cut, German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said late Sunday Europe needs to create independent credit rating agencies and stop relying solely on leading US-based agencies.


Jim Rogers agreed with the proposal, but says the agency simply must be competent, regardless of its origin.


“Whether it is European or not is irrelevant, the fact is that you do need somebody competent and somebody who can examine and decide who is solvent and who is not solvent,” he said. “Until a few months ago that they had the US as a Triple-A credit. The US is the largest debt nation in the history of the world. It is absurd that it was Triple A. Europe needs somebody competent who can go in there. It does not matter whether it is Russian, or Australian or American, or European, just so you have somebody competent. And these guys in S&P and Moody’s have had a semi-monopoly for decades. They have gotten corroded and lazy and sloppy and they are no longer competent.”


And he shared his view on the European crisis and how to get out of it.


“The best way to get out of it is to go ahead and to let people go bankrupt, let the people who made mistakes take their losses, the banks who made the bad loans, the people who invested in the bad banks – they should take their losses and start over,” he suggested.


“It looks as though the EU is about to make some of them take some losses and that will be good. That way we can start over and go forward. The problem is they are not doing enough. They are not taking enough losses. They are hoping that they can get through the next election or two and then everything will be OK. This is not going to solve the problem, it will delay the problem a bit longer, it does not solve the problem,” he stated.


Author and financial analyst F. William Engdahl told RT that Standard and Poor’s move to lower France’s credit ratings will be “water off a duck’s back” because the move was widely anticipated in the markets – but what it has inadvertently revealed is S&P’s own bias.


“S&P has played a rather blatant and aggressive role in the whole unravelling of the European euro crisis since December 2009, so people here are beginning to get used to it, and if anyone loses in the end, it’s going to be the credibility of institutions like Standard and Poor’s, or Moody’s, who are going to be seen as political agents,” Engdahl said.


He also told RT that many people in Europe believe American ratings agencies are being used as political tools. “The role that the US-based rating agencies have played since the Greek crisis erupted in December 09 has been what many people here see as a brazenly political role. I don’t think they’re the independent agencies that they portray themselves to be,” Engdahl said.


“Many times when it comes to the interests of the Wall Street banks, the so-called “Gods of Money” banks, like Goldman Sachs or others, they tend to be rather lenient. And when it comes to the interests of European institutions they tend to be rather aggressive, which leads many Europeans that I’ve talked with to think that the rating agencies are simply an extension of the US political apparatus.”


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Jim Rogers Announced as Keynote Speaker for 2012 Asia-Pacific Commodity ... - GlobeNewsWire (press release)

NEW YORK, Jan. 18, 2012 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- INTL FCStone Inc. (Nasdaq:INTL) today announced that Jim Rogers, internationally known commodity expert and best-selling author, will be the keynote speaker for the 2012 Asia-Pacific Commodity Outlook Conference in Singapore, sponsored by CME Group. The Outlook Conference will cover the supply and demand outlook for key agricultural and soft commodities; base and precious metals; energy products including petroleum and crude oil; and raw materials.


Also scheduled to speak at the conference is Professor Roger Stone of the University of South Queensland, presenting his world weather outlook.


In addition, INTL FCStone's commodity experts Bill Dwyer, Mike O'Dea, Jeff Rhodes, Greg Vincent, Tom Zabrodsky, Chris Thorpe, Fred Demler, Robert Chesler, Mar io Silveira, Mike Ortiz, Oscar Schaps, and Sagiv Shiv will present their outlooks for the global commodity markets.


The conference, to be held February 22 and 23 at Singapore's Grand Hyatt Hotel, is intended for General, Finance, Operations, Purchasing and Sales executives anywhere in the commodity production chain, as well as for institutions that regard commodities as an asset class and are seeking insight that will help them make strategic decisions.


For the full agenda or to register for the conference, please visit http://www.intlfcstone.com/seminars/outlook/Pages/SingaporeOutlook.aspx or contact Erin Olson at erin.olson@intlfcstone.com.



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Monday, February 6, 2012

Global AgInvesting(SM) Welcomes Jim Rogers, Internationally-Renowned Economist ... - MarketWatch (press release)

BOSTON, Jan. 30, 2012 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Attendees at Global AgInvesting(SM) 2012, to be held at the Waldorf=Astoria in New York City, April 23-25, will be privy to an exclusive presentation from world-renowned international investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers, who will be the keynote speaker at this premier agricultural investing conference.


Global AgInvesting will offer a comprehensive overview of agriculture investment opportunities, risks and return profiles, and strategies for diversified ag portfolios, bringing together more ag investors than any conference in the world.


Rogers has been a source for investment advice and financial strategy for decades and is frequently featured in The New York Times, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times and other prominent news outlets, and also has been a regular commentator and columnist in various media. He will present "How I See the World Today and What I Am Doing About It," on April 24 and remain at the conference that day, providing an unparalleled opportunity for networking with this investment expert.


"Global AgInvesting draws more senior-level decision makers than any agriculture investment series in the world, providing the perfect audience to receive Rogers' thought and action-provoking messages about the future of agricultural investment," said Greg Mellinger, CEO of HighQuest Partners, host of the event. "Access to the vision from this global investment authority is another way we are providing our partners with the most current, cutting-edge knowledge in the industry and unrivaled networking opportunities in the sector."


Rogers, who graduated from Yale and Oxford Universities, co-founded his first global-investment partnership, Quantum Fund, in 1973, which was so successful that he was able to retire at age 37. His newest index fund, The Rogers Global Resource Equity Index, focuses on the top companies in agriculture, mining, metals and energy sectors and those in the alternative energy space.


"The trend of investing in agriculture has already started. I can foresee that more and more farmers will become rich and agricultural commodity prices will continue to rise in the long-term," said Rogers. "I think ag will be a great place for the next 10-20 years. This conference is a reflection of the real money at work in the space, as well as the increased interest from new allocators."


For more information about Global AgInvesting in N.Y., Singapore and London, visit www.globalaginvesting.com . Learn more about the strategic advisory firm HighQuest Partners at www.highquestpartners.com .


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Jim Rogers

Warren Buffett

Nouriel Roubini