Sunday, July 29, 2012
Wednesday, July 25, 2012
And hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry and Societe Generale's Albert Edwards have long been bearish on the Asian giant.
In an interview with Investment Week, Rogers said China is sticking with its long-term plans for slowing-down the pace of economic growth. To that end he had this to say about Hendry and Edwards:
“Hugh has been dead wrong about China for three years now and China has not collapsed as he predicted, loudly, verbally and widely,” said Rogers.
“Albert has been bearish on everything for a long time. So if you are telling me he is bearish on China and bullish on everything else that would be different. But no, he is bearish on everything, including you, me and Mother Teresa.”
Rogers said China will face challenges just like the U.S. did in the nineteenth century. Meanwhile, he is watching for a sharp sell-off in Chinese shares to buy more.
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
by Steven Orlowski
In an exclusive interview with OilPrice.com, Jim Rogers declared Myanmar to be the best investment opportunity in the world, with North Korea not far behind. His exact words were:
"Probably the best investment opportunity in the world right now is Myanmar. In 1962, Myanmar was the richest country in Asia. They closed off in 1962, and now it's the poorest country in Asia. I see enormous opportunities there because they're now opening up. It's like when China opened up in 1978. There were unbelievable opportunities going forward. The same is true in Myanmar now in my view. North Korea, I expect to see the same sorts of developments."
Both countries are difficult to access. There are no ETFs dedicated to Myanmar, and certainly not North Korea. As we reported in April, one way to access Myanmar is through Thailand. "Thailand is Myanmar's largest export market and second largest import market, the latter of which is set to boom with an easing of import restrictions and a progressively freer Myanmar market."
The way to invest in Thailand is through the MSCI Thailand Investable Market Index Fund (THD). This allows you to indirectly profit from Myanmar, and directly benefit from Thailand's business relationship with the country.
Another way to access Myanmar is by investing in the entire region, known as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Formed on August 8, 1967 the Association of Southeast Asian Nations is a geo-political and economic organization of ten countries located in Southeast Asia. The original membership included Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Since then additional countries include Brunei, Myanmar (Burma), Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam.
The opportunity in the region is great, and Myanmar is certainly in a position to benefit. Until it becomes more accessible we have to be satisfied investing in the entire region or specific countries like Thailand. Here are a few data points regarding the ASEAN region:According to the Financial Times, by 2015 economists expect the ASEAN region to consist of a middle class of 300 million people driving consumption and economic growth.The World Federation of Exchanges states that ASEAN countries have a combined market larger than India, Brazil and Russia – that's a stock market capitalization of approximately $2.09 trillion.China Daily reports that in 2011, the ASEAN region overtook Japan as China's third largest trading partner. Trade increased 24% to $362.3 billion in 2011 and is expected to exceed $500 billion by 2015. The ASEAN region is expected to become China's top trading partner.
With all this great activity and Mr. Rogers' proclamation that Myanmar is the "best investment opportunity in the world", I suggest taking a look at the Global X FTSE ASEAN 40 ETF (ASEA). "The Global X FTSE ASEAN 40 ETF seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the FTSE/ASEAN 40 Index." This fund is a great way to invest in the ASEAN region but it has its shortcomings. It only invests in the five original members: Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia. Not unlike THD, you will be receiving indirect benefit from Myanmar. But this is as good as it gets for now.
If the prognostications are correct and Myanmar is able to successfully continue its path toward freer trade and capitalistic growth, I would expect ASEA and more funds to come will expand their country diversification and become even more targeted.
Ultimately it is obvious that any investor looking toward future growth needs exposure to the ASEAN region. I think Mr. Rogers may be correct about Myanmar. Now, what did he say about North Korea?
The current temperature has exceeded records from the Dust Bowl era, and the drought is now spanning the widest area since 1956.
Commodities guru Jim Rogers, however, says while this drought is severe for those suffering from it, there are much larger problems in agriculture as a whole.
In a telephone interview he said, "the drought is a big deal if it's not raining on your farm. But it is good for farmers in other parts of the world. You can't have perfect weather conditions everywhere, every year. And with all the other problems, we're hitting trigger points."
What are these other problems?
Rogers rattled off a list. The highest rate of suicide in the UK is among farmers. The average age of farmers in Japan is 66 and the average of farmers in the U.S. is 58. In India, hundreds of thousands of farmers have committed suicide in recent years. He even noted that more people study public relations than agriculture.
Rogers said the media may be focused on the drought, but these longer-term problems that are much bigger.
"The world faces serious problems in agriculture. We are facing shortages of everything. The inventories are near historic lows so any problem will have an immediate, profound effect. We are facing a shortage of farmers so any problems will turn into even bigger.
...But any weather problems will have big effects because of the dire situation in farming. Agriculture will be one of the best sectors of the world economy for years as I have told you often."
Monday, July 16, 2012
Food Demand Is On The Rise: Why Jim Rogers Is Investing In Farmland (DBC ... - ETF Daily News (blog)
Don Miller: Legendary Wall Street trader and best-selling author Jim Rogers recently offered this unconventional advice: If you want to get rich, you should be investing in farmland.
Back in 1999, Jim Rogers recommended gold when it was trading at $252 and silver at $4. You know what happened after that.
Now Rogers thinks investing in farmland will pay off in a big way.
“It’s the farmers, the producers, who are going to be in the captain’s seat when the prices go through the roof,” he told The Australian Financial Review.
Food Demand on the Rise
Consumers in places like China and India – where an emerging middle class suddenly can afford a better diet — are eating more of everything, especially high-protein meat.
But they have a long way to go to catch up to Western levels of meat consumption.
According to Time Magazine, the average American consumes about 250 pounds of meat a year. Meanwhile, the Chinese average roughly 100 pounds a year, while Indians eat less than 10 pounds a year.
As the middle class in these and other emerging markets expand in the coming years, demand for meat will explode.
But to increase meat production, farms will need a lot more grain to feed the livestock. Half of U.S. corn production already goes to feed cattle, pigs and poultry.
A prediction in a recent advertising campaign from Monsanto Co. (NYSE:MON) illustrates the immense demand that’s just around the corner. The company said the world’s farmers will need to produce more food in the next 50 years than farmers have produced in total over the last 10,000 years.
Soaring demand for grain has already affected the market. Monsanto said global grain consumption has exceeded total production for seven out of the last eight years.
“The world has got a serious food problem,” Rogers told Time. “The only real way to solve it is to draw more people back to agriculture.”
Milking Profits From Farmland
Meanwhile, new technology over the last 20 years has helped U.S. farmers significantly increase production. Redesigned seeds have increased yields and the use of computers has vastly improved planting techniques.
Such changes have pushed corn production from an average of 91 bushels per acre in 1980 to 152 bushels per acre in 2010. That, along with higher prices, is boosting profits and making farmland dramatically more valuable – and farmers richer.
Net farm income is expected to clock in at roughly $97.1 billion in 2012, the second highest on record according to the USDA.
Meanwhile, the average price for farmland has been rising since 1980, and now exceeds $2,000 an acre. Prices for prime land in some parts of the country have gone as high as $6,000 an acre.
Here’s something else to consider.
Farmland typically is held for long periods of time and usually comes on the market only when the owner passes away.
But today the average U.S. farmer is 58 years old. The USDA estimates that over one-third of all farmland owners have less than 15 years left to live.
That aging population represents a window of opportunity for investing in farmland.
Investing in Farmland
Over the last 100 years farmland, based on income and capital appreciation, has consistently delivered positive returns — with only three brief periods of negative returns (1930s, 1980s, and 2008).
And as the saying goes, they just aren’t making any more of it. So a severe imbalance is developing in the supply and demand of farmland.
Farmland is also an opportunity to invest in an asset class not directly correlated to stocks and bonds, and one with significantly less volatility.
Jim Rogers believes investing in farmland is “in its third inning.” In other words, there’s still plenty of time to get in.
He was recently in Australia to launch a new farmland fund with the goal of raising as much as $350 million to buy farms in New South Wales.
That’s fine for Rogers. But how can the rest of us start investing in farmland?
One way is to invest in agricultural futures through Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) like the PowerShares DB Commodity Index (NYSEARCA:DBC). The fund tracks an entire basket of agricultural commodities including corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, sugar, coffee, cattle and pigs.
Canadian citizens can invest in Agcapita Farmland Investment Partnership, a farmland private equity fund, with significant holdings in Saskatchewan, Alberta and Manitoba. Jim Rogers is actually an advisor to the fund, currently open to retail investors for a minimum investment of $10,000.
You might also take a look at Adecoagro S.A. (NYSE:AGRO), a Luxembourg-based company that owns significant farmland holdings in South America. It owns nearly 500,000 acres of farmland, consisting of 23 farms in Argentina, 13 farms in Brazil, and one in Uruguay.
With the latest scandal involving $215 million of missing customer funds at Chicago-based privately-held futures trading firm Peregrine Financial Group Inc. (PFGBest) a distinct trend has emerged that will most likely reveal in the months and years to come that the entire financial system is riddled with fraud, the level of which, could be so pervasive and systemic as to provide for the proverbial ‘black swan’ bank run of the collapse of the global financial system—despite central banker efforts to prop asset prices up with sanctioned counterfeit money. “No such thing as safe when you talk about it,” Rogers told OilPrice.com in response to a question regarding investing during times of crisis. “Even if you put your money in cash, if you put your money in the wrong cash, you lose a lot of money. As the people in Iceland have found out, as the people in Europe on the Euro have found out. So, no such thing as safe.”
The 69-year-old Rogers has gone on record on more than a dozen occasions that he sees terrible times for the U.S. economy and markets after the November elections, with the years 2013 and 2014 drastically changing the mood among Americans from one of hope to one of panic and despair.
“The problem is: I expect to see serious economic problems in 2013 and 2014 in the U.S,” Rogers said. “If and when that happens, we’re going to see a final panic in the markets and the economy and everything will have a crescendo and a selling climax.”
And a continuation of the economic downturn, which began in 2008, is expected to reveal, not only how bad and to what extent the economy and investment marketplace have deteriorated, but how much of the shocking state of decline of enterprise America has been hidden from the public through the complicity of the traditional media outlets.
Though Rogers wears a reputation as a mild-mannered straight-talking billionaire, appealing to a more-general audience of investors, another Jim, investment newsletter writer Jim Willie, in contrast, ‘gives it’ to his readers hard, fast and dirty.
“The entire financial system of the Western world is imploding,” Willie, the publisher of the famed Hat Trick Letter,
said in an interview with Bull Market Think,Dec. 5, 2011. “There is exponentially rising risks for individuals and their money…the risk right now–is people losing their entire life savings. I cannot seem to get people to understand this.”
Willie, who, before the crash of 2008, was referred to as “Crazy Jim” by his peers for his seemingly outrageous market and social-political predictions, warned investors in December 2011, a month following the MF Global fraud, “Several million private accounts may vanish–Brokerage accounts, Pension funds, Mutual funds; they’re all at risk. We are getting into the middle stages of implosion, where I believe the public will not wake up until at least one million private accounts are stolen, and completely vanish.”
It now appears that another Jim Willie “crazy” prediction has splashed cold water of truth on the faces of his critics, with the straight-laced Rogers now backing him up.
Irrespective of style and tone, both the pre-baby boomer Jim Rogers and baby boomer Jim Willie have communicated their analysis of today’s America and financial system to a broad audience desperately seeking wisdom and advice during these most extraordinary times. And, again, for the record, both men advocate holding gold during the bizarre financial, political and geopolitical upheaval we witness on a daily basis, because, as former partner of Jim Rogers at the famed Quantum Fund, George Soros, has said, “Act II” of the global financial crisis is yet to come.
Nothing but gold (silver, too) in your hands comes with a counter party or access to tax from a criminal government desperate enough to confiscate your wealth to keep their power.
Monday, July 9, 2012
13-year host Rick Wiles and famed investor Jim Rogers of Rogers Holdings discussed many of the same topics Rogers’ is asked to update from time to time, on many programs, including the gold market, Europe’s woes, the US dollar, and the economic outlook of Asia.
But Rogers ended the interview with a bang, taking on the controversial subject weighing on a growing number of Americans: Is the US headed into an extreme social/political catastrophe? And by implication, should Americans head for the exits? Wiles, himself, struggles with this question, as he’s intimated to his listeners in the past that he’s seriously considering relocating outside of the United States to avoid “life-threatening” dangers brewing within the republic. Though Rogers did not go on the record by recommending Americans flee the US, the 69-year-old Singapore resident did, however, paint a rather gruesome picture of future difficulties confronting America (not dissimilar to Gerald Celente’s warnings) and the likely unpleasant and shocking reaction by an oligarchical government against its own people.
"Nationalism will emerge. Healthier countries will not see fit to spend their hard earned money to bail out their less responsible neighbors."
Wiles, who earlier in the broadcast nearly became speechless in complete disgust after reporting President Obama’s latest and bizarre executive order regarding the president’s sudden ‘state of emergency’ relating to Russian nuclear material (Jun. 25, 2012), asked Rogers to speculate about what America will look like in 20-30 years.
Thirty years from now. . . we [America] will certainly have been through a period of default . . . There’s more than one way to default, you can print money, pay people off, pay them off with worthless currency. You have a default. . . De facto, you’ve defaulted, but . . . you’ve paid off the debts, but the people who receive that worthless money are not very happy. And that’s going to happen in the US. You’re going to see institutions that we’ve known in the US for decades are going to disappear, or totally turned over. Lehman Brothers had been around for 150 years. Bear Stearns had been around 80 odd years, or something. You’re going to see more of that. You’re going to see more universities disappearing. Some of the Ivy League schools are essentially bankrupt, or we’ll find out that they’re bankrupt. So you’re going to have huge, huge turmoil, many museums, hospitals, art galleries, many things that we’ve known and loved, are going to be in serious trouble, disappear, and in the meantime you’ll have new companies, institutions rise.
Now, does that lead to war? It always has.
America has been warlike as you know for the past many decades, several decades anyway. No doubt we’ll get into more wars and it’s not going to be fun.
Wiles asked Rogers about the obvious trend in America towards preparations of a police state, and will this trend accelerate in the future as the US standard of living declines?
Well, it always has throughout history and in any country in the world that this sort of thing takes place. Governments are going to want more and more power, they blame the problems on financial types, they blame the problems on foreigners and they always close off more, putting more controls, eventually also blame it on journalists, because they’ll say, ‘if journalist didn’t write about these problems, we wouldn’t have these problems.’ It always happens that way. As I say, America has been already been fairly warlike in the past several decades, but it will get more so. Right now, as you know, the government, drifting for the last decade or two, are now going into our garages, our bank accounts, our bedrooms. They can do anything they want. Not only that, America can execute you, they murder you if they want to. The president has a secret committee, sit down and say, ‘we don’t like Sally Jones. We think she’s doing things wrong.’ They can execute you—murder you. And they don’t even have to go to a judge. They just do it. This is the law
The two men ended the interview with Rogers pointing out one of the observations of the ancient Greek philosopher Plato (424/423 BC – 348/347) regarding social/political trends—a warning of the likely outcome of a morally, economically and spiritually collapsed America—an America in complete chaos.
“Plato, when he wrote The Republic
said, the way societies evolve, they go from dictatorship, to oligarchy, to democracy, to chaos, and then back to dictatorship, and it starts over again,” Rogers ended the interview. “Unfortunately, Plato has been right more than he’s been wrong about that.”
To help us look at these issues and more, we spoke with well-known investor, adventurer and author Jim Rogers. Jim is the creator of the Rogers International Commodity Index, he also recently completed a book called: "A Gift to my Children"—which helps people learn from their triumphs and mistakes in order to achieve a prosperous, well-lived life.
In the interview, Rogers talks about the following:
• Why recent oil price falls are a good buying opportunityInterview conducted by James Stafford of Oilprice.com.
• Why oil prices could fall to $40 a barrel
• Investment opportunities with the renewable energy sector
• Why he is optimistic about nuclear energy
• Why agriculture offers good opportunities to investors
• Why Myanmar is the best investment opportunity in the world right now
• Why there could be further unrest in the Middle East
• Why we should let Greece fail
Oilprice.com: It’s been an interesting period in the energy world as we’ve seen oil prices steadily decline over the past few months, and with the problems in Europe and slowdowns in India and China, do you expect this trend to continue?
Jim Rogers: Well, there is certainly a correction going on for various reasons. I think Saudi Arabia's trying to help re-elect Mr. Obama. There are also stories that JPMorgan has problems in its London office with a lot of unauthorized positions they're having to liquidate. I don't know what's going on, but I do know that corrections are normal in the industrial world. There's nothing unusual about it. If it continues, there’s an opportunity to buy more.
Oilprice.com: I read a report by the Economist Phil Verleger, who thinks that the Saudis' massive increase in oil production, along with other economic problems could cause oil prices to crash to $40 a barrel oil and $2 a gallon gasoline by November. Do you think this is a reasonable forecast, and we could see oil at these levels?
Jim Rogers: We could see anything. We certainly saw lower prices than that back in 2008 when there was a collapse. When things are collapsing, all sorts of strange things happen. We found that out in 2008, and we will probably find out in the future, as well. If oil does go to $40, that means it'll just be setting up an even more bullish scenario for the duration of the bull market.
Oilprice.com: How do you see the energy markets reacting to the Iranian sanctions, which are going to be coming into effect on the first of July?
Jim Rogers: Oh, I don't see that having much effect at all. Everybody already knows about that—nothing new to the markets. They have long since adjusted to this news, whether it be stock markets, smuggling, etc. The Iranian sanctions are a non-event as far as I'm concerned.
Now, an attack on Iran would not be a non-event, but this is just more noise.
Oilprice.com: The Middle East Petocracies, along with Venezuela and Russia, must be nervously watching the price of oil. Can you see potential problems developing in these countries and other oil producing nations if prices continue to fall?
Jim Rogers: That's part of what I was saying before. The lower prices go for the fundamentals, the price of fundamentals improve, but for these countries the money they have available to buy peace is running out and there are going to be problems, because a lot of people have been lead to believe that the government can solve their problems and if the government runs out of money, it makes people upset.
Oilprice.com: Crude oil has dropped from $108 a barrel in February to $84 today. Do you think low oil prices could provide an economic stimulus?
Jim Rogers: Certainly, it's an economic stimulus for everybody who buys oil. There's no question about that. On the other hand, for people who produce oil, it's a negative. Now obviously more of us buy oil than produce oil, but it’s important to remember it does cut both ways.
Oilprice.com: Less than 0.1 percent of U.S. cars and trucks run on natural gas, and with falling natural gas prices and America’s dependence on oil and vulnerability to oil price shocks—I was hoping to get your thoughts on natural gas usage for transportation?
Jim Rogers: Well, If natural gas stays this low compared to oil prices, it does give an incentive to develop natural gas-powered vehicles, and I think we are going to see more and more developments here. Is it going to end the use of oil, combustion engines? Probably not any time soon. Someday it could, but someday is a long way away.
Oilprice.com: Do you believe natural gas prices are near to a bottom, or do you think they have further to fall?
Jim Rogers: U.S. natural gas is somewhere near its bottom, in my view. The problem is I expect to see serious economic problems in 2013 and 2014 in the U.S. If and when that happens, we're going to see a final panic in the markets and the economy and everything will have a crescendo and a selling climax.
We're certainly a lot closer than we were. Although, when you have a selling climax in markets, you go to levels much lower than most people believe possible and that may happen. Whatever that bottom is, it's not too far from the recent lows in natural gas.
Natural gas in many other places such as the UK are much, much higher than they are in the U.S.
Sunday, July 8, 2012
In an interview with OilPrice.com published on CNBC.com, Rogers said the time for investors to jump back in to the metal is unknown for now.
"I've actually owned gold for longer than 11 years. I'm not buying now. Gold went up 11 years in a row, which is extremely unusual for any asset. I don't know of any asset in history that's gone up 11 years in a row without a correction.
"Corrections are normal and are the way things should work, the way things do work. Having said that, I don't know when the correction will stop. It's normal in my experience for corrections to go down 30 or 40 percent. It's just the way markets work."
But none of this means that you shoudl short gold either
I'm certainly not selling my gold, because I suspect gold will be much, much, much higher over the next decade.
View the original article here
Monday, July 2, 2012
Rogers said on Friday.“People need to stop spending money they don’t have. The solution to too much debt is not more debt. All this little agreement does is give them (banks) a chance to have even more debt for a while longer,” he added. After negotiating late into the night, European policymakers agreed on Friday morning that the bloc's bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), would be able to lend directly to recapitalize banks without increasing a country's budget deficit, and without preferential seniority status.Summit leaders also agreed that euro area rescue funds could also be used to stabilize bond markets without forcing countries that comply with EU budget rules to adopt extra austerity measures or economic reforms.
Countries such as Spain and Italy have been burdened with sky-high borrowing costs – levels seen as unsustainable for governments in the long term.Rogers argues that the deal does not improve the solvency of indebted nations such as Spain. Spain's central government budget deficit has soared to 3.41 percent of GDP in the first five months of 2012, above the EU limit of 3 percent.He adds that the governments need to stop coming to the rescue of failing banks, even if it results in “financial Armageddon.” “What would make me very excited is if a few people went bankrupt or a few people started paying off their debt. We are going to have financial Armageddon anyways, when the rest of the world is not going to give these people any more money.”“What are you going to do in two, three, four years when the market suddenly says ‘no more money’ and the Germans don’t have more money and the American debt has gone through the roof.”Rogers says the market euphoria brought on by the news, which saw a surge in Asian stocks, the euro and risk assets like oil, will not last. “How many times has this happened in the last three years – they (EU leaders) have had a meeting, the markets have rallied, two days later the market says wait a minute this doesn’t solve the problem,” he said.Rogers, who is an advocate of commodities-based investing, says he is not adding any positions at the moment. “I own commodities, I’m delighted they are going up today – they are going up a lot. I’m not jumping into anything.”
View the original article here
Sunday, July 1, 2012
A day after the billionaire investor told CNBC that the Spanish bailout was "absurd," he amplified on his point that letting any country go bankrupt wouldn't be the worst thing.
"New York City went bankrupt, the world didn’t come to an end. Mississippi went bankrupt once, the world hasn’t come to an end. Detroit’s bankrupt, the world hasn’t ended," Rogers said Tuesday on CNBC's "Closing Bell."
So if banks in ailing Spain and Greece go bankrupt, bondholders and bankers will lose money, he shrugged.
"What happens is you reorganize and you start over. It’s been happening for a few thousand years. There’s nothing new about it."
Had the U.S. not let Lehman Brothers fail at the start of the 2008 recession, "we would still be suffering," he said. "They would still be bailing out everyone in sight."
His strategy in the event of a global selloff: Sell short.
"I’m not advocating because I’m short, but I’m short because I think there are going to be more problems in the world economy in the next year or two. That’s how you protect yourself in times like this," he said. "What they’re doing is they’re making this situation worse."
Because bailouts and printing money only add to the debt burden, Rogers said.
"What I see happening is more and more bailouts, higher and higher and higher debt," he said. "We’re going to have a worse recession next year and 2014 because the debt is high. ... In 2007 and 2008, the recession was worse because the debt was higher; 2013 and 2014, the debt is up to the ceiling. The recession is going to be worse. This is not going to be fun."
Rogers sees oil as a good investment over the long haul.
"The price of oil may well go down for a while. China is slowing down, India is slowing down, a lot of places are slowing down," he said. But "over a decade the price of oil is going to go through the roof. The surprise is going to be how high the price of oil stays and how high it goes. That doesn’t mean it cannot go to $70 in the meantime. But if it does, you should buy a lot of oil."
And gold "If it goes down, I’ll buy more," he said.
But would he buy stocks?
"Not that I can think of," he said. "If stocks collapsed around the world I would have to buy a lot more stocks. I would buy stocks again, but I don’t see that happening. I’m telling you, the economy is going to be bad next year. Why buy stocks in the face of something like that?"
View the original article here