Wednesday, June 26, 2013

US Natural gas, oil shale overhyped

Regarding natural gas, the fundamentals on the ground are not nearly as good as the hype. The number of rigs on the ground has gone down 75% the last couple of years, as the wells are very short-lived, and it takes an enormous amount of money to keep them up. A number of companies have had to lower estimates of their reserves.

As for oil shale, typical wells deplete at 38 per cent the first year. Thus you need a lot of drilling, money, and a high price to keep up production rates.  All you have to do is go out in the oil patch. I believe the investment world will be disappointed with the notion that supply is so great that oil will collapse.

Jim Rogers

Warren Buffett

Nouriel Roubini