Tuesday, July 9, 2013

Like Natural gas, Global oil reserves decreasing

With natural gas, what happened was everybody started drilling. And they rushed out and had a wonderful time. But now it’s four or five years later, and we’re finding out these wells decline very quickly. And so people are finding it’s not nearly as much fun as it was in the beginning, especially in the beginning when a lot of them had to drill acreage quickly to maintain their leasehold obligations.

I think the reserves may not be what we thought. And some of the gas companies have reported decreases in their estimated reserves because the wells dry up pretty quickly.

The same is happening with oil. The oil boom started later than the boom in shale gas. And we’re finding that those wells decline at the rate of, depending on who you believe, 38 to 69 percent in the first year. I don’t have a clue, because I've never drilled a shale oil well. But we do know that those are fairly short-lived, too. So this has been great fun, and it may last a while. But I would suspect it’s not quite the boom that the press seems to think it is. We’ll find out.

Jim Rogers

Warren Buffett

Nouriel Roubini