Monday, July 22, 2013

Serious fundamental problems in agriculture

In 1987 stocks around the globe fell 40% and many people said the bull market was over. Then in 1989, 1990, 1994, 1997, 1998 there were many times when stocks collapsed and everybody was convinced the bull market was over. The bull market wasn’t over. It eventually ended in a bubble.

In my view that’s happening with commodities. I don’t see major sources of new supply coming in on stream. Most commodities don’t have massive new supply yet. For instance, agriculture has produced record levels for the past few years and yet inventories are the lowest in 40 years because consumption keeps going higher and higher, faster than production does.

We have serious fundamental problems developing in agriculture. I don’t see enough new supply to cause the bull market to end other than a temporary consolidation, especially since so many people are convinced and quick to rush out and write that the bull market is over. But we’ll see.

Jim Rogers

Warren Buffett

Nouriel Roubini