Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Picture of Jim Rogers

 
Photo of Jim Rogers at a speaking engagement

Monday, July 22, 2013

Serious fundamental problems in agriculture

In 1987 stocks around the globe fell 40% and many people said the bull market was over. Then in 1989, 1990, 1994, 1997, 1998 there were many times when stocks collapsed and everybody was convinced the bull market was over. The bull market wasn’t over. It eventually ended in a bubble.

In my view that’s happening with commodities. I don’t see major sources of new supply coming in on stream. Most commodities don’t have massive new supply yet. For instance, agriculture has produced record levels for the past few years and yet inventories are the lowest in 40 years because consumption keeps going higher and higher, faster than production does.

We have serious fundamental problems developing in agriculture. I don’t see enough new supply to cause the bull market to end other than a temporary consolidation, especially since so many people are convinced and quick to rush out and write that the bull market is over. But we’ll see.

Friday, July 19, 2013

Bull market in commodities still on

Most bull markets have lasted for a couple of decades, or nearly a couple of decades. And in my view supply is not there yet. By the way if economies slow down, it would affect demand for all commodities but then Mr. Bernanke and his friends are going to print a lot more money. It’s the wrong thing to do but unfortunately that’s all they know to do, and they’ll do more.

Thursday, July 18, 2013

Gold could bottom next year in 2014

 It costs money to close a mine[gold], it costs money to re-open a mine so people are reluctant to close mines. So you can see any commodity staying below the cost of production for a while, especially if it’s something like a mine which is expensive to close and expensive to open.

Some people are not going to be able to open mines because of what’s happened.  But then you’re going to eventually have people close mines, and eventually, like I said it’s going to work its way out in 2014, 2015, gold will make a nice bottom and off we’ll go again with the assumption of a bull market.

Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Jim Rogers says he doesnt own Gold mining stocks

 I don’t own gold mining stocks. There’s so many other easy ways for people to buy gold now that the miners have stiff competition. And there’s lots and lots of competitive situations in mining.
30 years ago if you wanted to buy gold, you were almost restricted to gold mining shares. That’s not true anymore. You can buy all sorts of coins. In those days only Krugerrands were available, 30 years ago. Nobody even made gold coins except Krugerrands. Now many countries have them. All sorts of ETFs, ETNs, futures, now there’s many ways to buy gold. So the miners have a serious competitive situation and of course there’s hundreds of them.

Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Gold miners have a difficult time ahead

Mark Twain said the definition of a gold mine is ‘a hole in the ground with a liar standing at the top of the hole’ because there’s just so many of them. Somebody once did a study and I think he determined that more money has been lost in gold mining shares than any other industry in America including airlines and railroads at one time. So miners are going to have a very difficult time ahead of them.

Monday, July 15, 2013

Gold is going to eventually make new highs.

You know when you have people that are faithful, or true believers, you usually don't hit a true bottom until most of those people get washed out.

Gold is going to eventually make new highs. The bull market's not over.


Friday, July 12, 2013

Gold miners wont shut down easily

I've been in the investment world a long time and I know that things can stay below the cost of production for years. It takes a long time for people to believe they have to close their mines. It costs money to close a mine, it costs money to re-open a mine, so people are reluctant to close mines. So you can see any commodity staying below the cost of production for a while, especially if it's something like a mine which is expensive to close, and expensive to open.


Thursday, July 11, 2013

China will succeed even with setbacks

I read all this stuff in the press. And I'm not quite sure how you tell 1.3 billion people [in China] they’ve got to stop building infrastructure and start consuming. That’s not the way the world works, at least with no human beings I know. It’s happening gradually, just as it happened in the U.S., U.K. and many other countries historically. There are going to be setbacks in China. Goodness knows, no economy or market goes straight up. They all have setbacks. China will have many setbacks.

In the 19th century, America had a horrible Civil War. We had several depressions, very little rule of law, very few human rights. And yet we became a pretty successful country in the 20th century. So China is going to have plenty of problems. What I plan to do is, when I see serious problems in China again, I hope I'm smart enough to pick up the phone and buy more China.

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Sugar, gold, silver looking undervalued

Question: What do you think is the most under appreciated commodity story out there right now?

Jim Rogers: Maybe sugar. But I don’t really know. I haven't thought about it. Just find out whatever is down the most and find out where the most bears are. And that’s probably it. I don’t know whether there are more bears on silver and gold or on sugar right now. But wherever the most bears are, that’s where you should look.

Tuesday, July 9, 2013

Like Natural gas, Global oil reserves decreasing

With natural gas, what happened was everybody started drilling. And they rushed out and had a wonderful time. But now it’s four or five years later, and we’re finding out these wells decline very quickly. And so people are finding it’s not nearly as much fun as it was in the beginning, especially in the beginning when a lot of them had to drill acreage quickly to maintain their leasehold obligations.

I think the reserves may not be what we thought. And some of the gas companies have reported decreases in their estimated reserves because the wells dry up pretty quickly.

The same is happening with oil. The oil boom started later than the boom in shale gas. And we’re finding that those wells decline at the rate of, depending on who you believe, 38 to 69 percent in the first year. I don’t have a clue, because I've never drilled a shale oil well. But we do know that those are fairly short-lived, too. So this has been great fun, and it may last a while. But I would suspect it’s not quite the boom that the press seems to think it is. We’ll find out.

Monday, July 8, 2013

Long bull markets always end in a bubble or mania before it’s over

All these things will end in a bubble some day. Long bull markets always end in a bubble or mania before it’s over with.

And when there's a bubble in gold, I hope I'm smart enough to get out. We haven't seen a bubble yet. Until recently, if you went around any U.S. city, you would see signs outside many jewelry stores saying “We buy gold.” And the American people line up to sell gold. Later there’ll be signs there saying, “We sell gold,” and people will be lining up to buy it in big ways. That hasn't happened yet.

Friday, July 5, 2013

Jim Rogers has not sold any Gold

Jim Rogers on if he would keep buying gold at $1200 and lower:

Yes, if it gets there. I bought more [June 18], as a matter of fact. I bought a little bit, not much, over the last few days in case this was the bottom. I would not be surprised if there's another chance to buy lower later on, but I'm buying and I own it. I haven't sold any.

Wednesday, July 3, 2013

Jim Rogers: Malaysia is attractive

International investors can go anywhere, and they don't go to places where there are restrictions and problems, they prefer the open, exciting and dynamics places.

When people think of Malaysia, they think the government owns or controls a major portion of the economy. You have huge reserves, abundant natural resources and Malaysia is at the right place at the right time. Of the many countries that have opened up, I would say Malaysia is one of the most attractive.

Tuesday, July 2, 2013

Oil reserves are declining around the world except USA

Jim Rogers on when the commodities bull market will end:

When there’s massive new supply coming on stream, then we’ll have the end of the bull market. But the world has consumed more agriculture products than it has produced for a decade now. But worse than that, we’re running out of farmers. The average age of farmers in America is 58; in Japan, it’s 66. Many of the industrial metals are now below the cost of production.

And nearly everybody has cut back dramatically on their expansion plans and investment plans. Oil reserves are declining pretty steadily around the world. We do have shale oil, which has caused a rise in supply. But that’s only in the U.S; the rest of the world has declined. Moreover, it remains to be seen how long the oil boom in the U.S. will continue.

Jim Rogers

Warren Buffett

Nouriel Roubini