Tuesday, March 29, 2016

China not to blame for the falling Iron Ore prices

You have to remember the iron ore companies went nuts and expanded in a very dramatic way. No matter what China did, those guys in Australia, Brazil, and the United States opened staggering amounts of capacity. Its not as though the Chinese suddenly said lets dump iron ore. China doesn’t have a lot of excess iron ore. The excess iron ore came from Australia and the others. I can not think of anything, maybe rare earths, but there is not much that China has so much excess that they could dump something and drive prices down. They could conceivably manipulate in futures markets but again, I’ve been around a long time, and it is very hard to manipulate those over any long period time. 

I’m sure you could drive the price of cotton down for a day or a week or a month. But to manipulate these prices for a long period of time unless its like Saudi Arabia with oil I don’t see it happening. And that’s because Saudi Arabia has a lot of oil.

Tuesday, March 15, 2016

North and South Korea should unite to become a powerful nation

I am a fan of President Park [of South Korea] more than any other politicians but that was a mistake if you ask me. When she closed the complex, I was surprised. That was pretty negative for South Koreans. I know she has an election in April. It is one of the few times I thought she was making a mistake.

All you have to do is to take down the demilitarized zone. Stop spending money on defense. You had those war games every year for 50 years. 

Kim Jong-un using nuclear power to gain negotiation leverage

We now know negotiations were set, but then the U.S. pulled out so I presume that was his reason. He seems to want peace. 

North Korea free trade zones
They already started. They already have 15 free trade zones. The reason why there is so little investment from abroad is they just started. It takes a while for this to take place. He (Kim) does have 15 free trade zones. You can go on bicycle tours, you can go skiing, and you can take a movie tour (in North Korea). That's what you could not do before. Those are what his father and grandfather did not allow. 

North and South Korea unification will make the country very attractive for investments

I don't think unification will happen in the foreseeable future. But when it comes, Korea will be the most exciting country in the world for a decade or two. Once unified, it will grow faster than others and it will have a lot of dynamic things happening. You have 75 to 80 million people right on the Chinese border. I will bet on a very exciting Korean Peninsula and may well invest most of my wealth there.

So when you put two countries together, while everybody else is suffering, you will have dynamics that other countries won't have at the time. That is a reason you need unification. They need you and you need them in the future.

Tuesday, March 1, 2016

War can cause oil prices to rocket up

The world is on the verge of war on any given day, but it may not happen for several years. 

Well, if there’s war, then certainly there will be a sudden supply side price shock. But as for the supply side otherwise, I don’t think it’s going to be sudden. It takes a while for these things to adjust. Yes, a lot of frackers are going bust in the United States, but it takes a while for people to realize, and for that to work its way through. And even if the frackers go broke, you do apparently have more Iranian oil coming on stream. So this doesn’t happen over night.

Jim Rogers

Warren Buffett

Nouriel Roubini