Tuesday, May 16, 2017

It may not be different this time

Everyone is of the view that there is nothing to worry about... Interest rates going up is a big risk. Historically in the US, when the Fed raised interest rates four times, it was the end—the markets and the economy would then go down. Now, there are people who argue that it historically was correct, but it is different now as interest rates are zero; so maybe we can have a couple of interest rate hikes before the end.

Sunday, May 7, 2017

When markets go down

The problem is when the markets start going down, it doesn’t matter if they are cheap, or expensive—all of them will go down.

Friday, April 21, 2017

Crude Oil may already have bottomed

Crude is in the process of making a bottom—it is a complicated bottom—we are going to look back in a few years from now and say that in 2015, 2016 and 2017, crude made its bottoming pattern. I will not sell crude now, especially if Trump is going to throw some more bombs around.

Sunday, April 9, 2017

History has shown that trade wars will not be good for the world economy

If Mr Trump starts trade wars, the whole world’s going to collapse... I mean that’s it – it’s over. History is very clear about that. If he does the other things – cuts taxes, builds infrastructure, brings the money back to the US, gets rid of regulations – the market will like it and the market will go up for a while. I wouldn’t say more than a few months but it would certainly go up for a while. But if he starts all of those other things that he promised us he would do, you should be very worried.

Sunday, April 2, 2017

Scotland leaving the UK

If Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, the British Pound can go to $0.80. The Scots have a lot of Oil and if they leave they are going to take the oil with them. 

Sunday, March 26, 2017

Safe Haven: US Dollar VS Japanese Yen

There is some money that goes into the yen on the mistaken view that it's a safe haven too. But you know, the Japanese have gigantic debts as well. Their internal debts are, perhaps, higher even than the U.S., so it's not a place to put money. But if you don't believe the U.S. dollar is a safe haven, you might try the yen. I am not, but some people do. 

Sunday, March 12, 2017

Safety vs Security

Well history shows that people always would like a little more safety and a willing to “give up some things for more safety and security.” Benjamin Franklin said well anybody who would give up some freedoms for security is going to wind up with neither security nor freedom and they deserve to lose both and of course that's the way it is.

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

What China is doing right now

If Mr. Trump does what he says, Chinese equities certainly are not going to go up.... No equities are going to go up if he does what he says he's going to do. So I'm sitting and watching.

The Chinese are now spending huge amounts of money cleaning up [the environment]. … Healthcare in China's a disaster. They're spending a lot of money to get better and more health care. Parts of the Chinese economy are going to do extremely well no matter what happens to the world. 

Thursday, January 12, 2017

When its better to do nothing than something

The way of the successful investor is normally to do nothing -- not until you see money lying there, somewhere over in the corner, and all that is left for you to do is go over and pick it up.

Jim Rogers

Warren Buffett

Nouriel Roubini